Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
10:19 am - DJIA is up but selling volume remained low !
Watch out for the presidential election on Nov 4.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
11:46 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine !
Dear Traders,
On Wednesday, Sam Gibson, an executive with Man gave a briefing on Man Funds at the PJ Hilton. Many of you including myself and Martin are invested in Man and are worried as many hedge funds are bust or lost most of their assets.
Here are the highlights of his briefing:
1- Man AHL has performed positively this quarter making a small profit. Man AHL is the driver of Man Essential/ Eclipse Funds.
2 - Losses as reflected in your Fame account are because the AUD dropped in value versus the RM. Sam reported that the AUD may recover in the next few months
as world credit problems resolve themselves and banks start to lend again. He also mentioned that Australian Banks are solid and not caught up in the credit crises and this is AUD supportive. Demand for commodities which Australia produces is still strong from China despite the negative press.
3 The Australian government has announced that they will guarantee all bank deposts. This means your capital guarantee for the Man Funds is secure. Your guarantee is secured in AUD government bonds and no exposure to AIG/ Lehmen or any mortgage/subprime bonds.
4 The holding company of Man listed in London FTSE is an asset manager and not a bank which means they do not suffer credit problems that UK banks are suffering.
5 Man AHL deals in commodity markets and exploits trends both up and down. Because commodities are traded on an an official exchange such as the CPOT or CME with a clearing house and in cash there is virtually no risk of default.
6 Man is a fund of funds and not a one man show fund. THis means you are diversified among markets and managers. Most hedge funds that went bust recently are one man show funds.
7 Man fund withdrawals by fearful investors have been very limited in this market turmoil testifing to the confidence of institutional and professional investors in Man.
After listening to the presentation I have decided to personally commit more funds to Man. The newly launched capital guaranteed fund will close on 28 November.
There will be no newsletter this weekend as I am going to Vietnam on holiday. Any questions on your account or investments with me please call Martin 03 2084 9999 ext 3533. Will be back on Tuesday
The KLSE is holding at the monthly support having being tested 3 times. Risk is limited at this levels but continue to deal in only the highest quality issues.
Have a good week ahead
Bill
On Wednesday, Sam Gibson, an executive with Man gave a briefing on Man Funds at the PJ Hilton. Many of you including myself and Martin are invested in Man and are worried as many hedge funds are bust or lost most of their assets.
Here are the highlights of his briefing:
1- Man AHL has performed positively this quarter making a small profit. Man AHL is the driver of Man Essential/ Eclipse Funds.
2 - Losses as reflected in your Fame account are because the AUD dropped in value versus the RM. Sam reported that the AUD may recover in the next few months
as world credit problems resolve themselves and banks start to lend again. He also mentioned that Australian Banks are solid and not caught up in the credit crises and this is AUD supportive. Demand for commodities which Australia produces is still strong from China despite the negative press.
3 The Australian government has announced that they will guarantee all bank deposts. This means your capital guarantee for the Man Funds is secure. Your guarantee is secured in AUD government bonds and no exposure to AIG/ Lehmen or any mortgage/subprime bonds.
4 The holding company of Man listed in London FTSE is an asset manager and not a bank which means they do not suffer credit problems that UK banks are suffering.
5 Man AHL deals in commodity markets and exploits trends both up and down. Because commodities are traded on an an official exchange such as the CPOT or CME with a clearing house and in cash there is virtually no risk of default.
6 Man is a fund of funds and not a one man show fund. THis means you are diversified among markets and managers. Most hedge funds that went bust recently are one man show funds.
7 Man fund withdrawals by fearful investors have been very limited in this market turmoil testifing to the confidence of institutional and professional investors in Man.
After listening to the presentation I have decided to personally commit more funds to Man. The newly launched capital guaranteed fund will close on 28 November.
There will be no newsletter this weekend as I am going to Vietnam on holiday. Any questions on your account or investments with me please call Martin 03 2084 9999 ext 3533. Will be back on Tuesday
The KLSE is holding at the monthly support having being tested 3 times. Risk is limited at this levels but continue to deal in only the highest quality issues.
Have a good week ahead
Bill
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
1:16 pm - FKLI broke higher at 881.0
Gone long earlier this morning but cut losses. Some clients is long too. Profit objective is 896.5. Let's see if it can hit it today !
10:16 am - I am presenting a talk on futures on FKLI/FCPO this coming Saturday 25 Oct 2008
CIMB Events
OCT 25 (Kuala Lumpur) – 8.00am to 1.30pm
CIMB Bursa Market Chat 2008 – To be held at Securities Commission Kuala Lumpur.
My talk is at 11.45 pm . There are other speakers speaking on market outlook of Msia and online trading by CIMB.
Light refreshments will be served. Admission is Fee.
Call CIMB general line at 03 2084 9999 and ask for itrade for registration.
See you there.
Rgds,
-martin-
OCT 25 (Kuala Lumpur) – 8.00am to 1.30pm
CIMB Bursa Market Chat 2008 – To be held at Securities Commission Kuala Lumpur.
My talk is at 11.45 pm . There are other speakers speaking on market outlook of Msia and online trading by CIMB.
Light refreshments will be served. Admission is Fee.
Call CIMB general line at 03 2084 9999 and ask for itrade for registration.
See you there.
Rgds,
-martin-
8:59 am - There were two major support at 875/876
These two support were in Dec 05 and June 06. I think FKLI can stop here for the time being ! But the point is you need a catalyst for the mkt to rebound back in the afternoon.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
9:11 am - FKLI need to break above 930/931 to move higher.
That's the long trade. However, I suppose many who had long wud take profit at this resistance level 930.
Monday, October 20, 2008
10:16 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
I have had a number of calls this week, " Should I sell all my shares ? Is Malaysia in recession? Everything is so bad. I am depressed. All the economic news on TV is bad. Major banks in the world are collapsing- Is it safe to keep my money in the bank ? Is the Man Fund Capital guaranteed still a guarantee ? What if NAB Bank in Australia who underwrites the Man capital guarantee goes bust? Do I lose all my money ?
Fear is at the absolute extreme. Perhaps at the 1931 depression levels- It is as though Chicago was hit by a nuclear bomb !
My advice: DO NOT THROW AWAY YOUR QUALITY SHARES or your Man Investments. (Man AHL made a 7 % return in September covering the JUly and August loss)
Here is the reality: Warren Buffet has opened his wallet to buy for his own account. When he opens his wallet we are close to a bottom. The news is creating the fear and panic and driving the herd of sheep to the slaughter house. The tigers of the market are enjoying the feast.
Look at facts and logic: Credit and oil are the lifeblood of the world economy- oil has collapsed which gives a huge economic boost but the media and most investors are not discounting the almost 50 % drop in crude oil. Credit is beginning to unfreeze. This will cause the US dollar to drop, AUD/MR rate to move in the AUD favor and commodities to pick up and the KLSE/world markets to begin a recovery. Just like our body- when we suffer an injury it takes time to heal. The healing has started.
On Wednesday, you are invited to a private event: Please let me know your questions about current performance/capital guarantee so we can ask Sam.
Mr Sam Gibson from Man Investments will share on how alternative investment can help to enhance your total portfolio while Our CIO, Mr Ang Kok Heng will share his views on the advantages of foreign investments and the analysis on historical performance of Man Investment funds.
Details of the talk are as below:
Date : 22 October 2008 (Wednesday)
Time : 7.00pm - 9.45pm
Venue : Kristal Ballroom 1,
1st Floor East Wing, Hilton Petaling Jaya Hotel,
No 2 Jalan Barat,
46200 Petaling Jaya.
7.00 pm Registration
7.30 pm Alternative Investment Opportunities Through Man Investment
by Mr Sam Gibson of MAN Investment
8.30 pm BREAK*
8.45 pm Voyaging the Financial Tsunami
by Mr Ang Kok Heng, Chief Investment Officer of Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd
9.45 pm Question and Answer Session
*Refreshments will be provided.
Please RSVP with Azimah at 03-2711 3038 or email me This seminar is free of charge.
DOW 30 Futures with support building off a double bottom. It takes time to heal. TG issued a classic shakeout signal on 13 October showing that scared sellers are giving to strong hand smart money buyers. Despite the doom and gloom Malaysia is much stronger economically than the US. The political problems in Malaysia are a storm in a teacup and have nothing to do with the supply and demand for CPO etc. .
I have had a number of calls this week, " Should I sell all my shares ? Is Malaysia in recession? Everything is so bad. I am depressed. All the economic news on TV is bad. Major banks in the world are collapsing- Is it safe to keep my money in the bank ? Is the Man Fund Capital guaranteed still a guarantee ? What if NAB Bank in Australia who underwrites the Man capital guarantee goes bust? Do I lose all my money ?
Fear is at the absolute extreme. Perhaps at the 1931 depression levels- It is as though Chicago was hit by a nuclear bomb !
My advice: DO NOT THROW AWAY YOUR QUALITY SHARES or your Man Investments. (Man AHL made a 7 % return in September covering the JUly and August loss)
Here is the reality: Warren Buffet has opened his wallet to buy for his own account. When he opens his wallet we are close to a bottom. The news is creating the fear and panic and driving the herd of sheep to the slaughter house. The tigers of the market are enjoying the feast.
Look at facts and logic: Credit and oil are the lifeblood of the world economy- oil has collapsed which gives a huge economic boost but the media and most investors are not discounting the almost 50 % drop in crude oil. Credit is beginning to unfreeze. This will cause the US dollar to drop, AUD/MR rate to move in the AUD favor and commodities to pick up and the KLSE/world markets to begin a recovery. Just like our body- when we suffer an injury it takes time to heal. The healing has started.
On Wednesday, you are invited to a private event: Please let me know your questions about current performance/capital guarantee so we can ask Sam.
Mr Sam Gibson from Man Investments will share on how alternative investment can help to enhance your total portfolio while Our CIO, Mr Ang Kok Heng will share his views on the advantages of foreign investments and the analysis on historical performance of Man Investment funds.
Details of the talk are as below:
Date : 22 October 2008 (Wednesday)
Time : 7.00pm - 9.45pm
Venue : Kristal Ballroom 1,
1st Floor East Wing, Hilton Petaling Jaya Hotel,
No 2 Jalan Barat,
46200 Petaling Jaya.
7.00 pm Registration
7.30 pm Alternative Investment Opportunities Through Man Investment
by Mr Sam Gibson of MAN Investment
8.30 pm BREAK*
8.45 pm Voyaging the Financial Tsunami
by Mr Ang Kok Heng, Chief Investment Officer of Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd
9.45 pm Question and Answer Session
*Refreshments will be provided.
Please RSVP with Azimah at 03-2711 3038 or email me This seminar is free of charge.
DOW 30 Futures with support building off a double bottom. It takes time to heal. TG issued a classic shakeout signal on 13 October showing that scared sellers are giving to strong hand smart money buyers. Despite the doom and gloom Malaysia is much stronger economically than the US. The political problems in Malaysia are a storm in a teacup and have nothing to do with the supply and demand for CPO etc. .
Have a good week
Bill
Saturday, October 18, 2008
5:40 pm - More bad news from DJIA
Fallout from financial crisis hammers housingSaturday October 18, 4:57 am ET By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Financial crisis takes toll on battered housing market; Wall St. ends week with relative calm
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation is on track to build fewer homes this year than at any time since the end of World War II, adding to the woes of an economy that analysts said Friday has almost certainly entered a recession.
While the economic outlook darkened even further with bad reports on layoffs and consumer confidence, it was one of the quietest days since the financial meltdown began a month ago. Wall Street's tumultuous week turned out to be its best in five years.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 127 points Friday but turned in the strong week because of two huge days of gains -- a record 936-point jump on Monday and an increase of 401 points Thursday.
Friday was still marked by the huge swings that have become typical lately. At various points the Dow was up nearly 300 points and down nearly 250, and it finished with a triple-digit move for the 22nd time in 25 trading sessions.
A monthly survey by the National Association of Home Builders showed sentiment among home builders hit a record low in early October.
David Seiders, chief economist for the group, said builders are being hit by a double whammy from the financial turmoil: It's harder for them to get loans to pursue new houses, and more difficult to sell those they do build.
He forecast that builders will keep slashing production in coming months, with construction starts for new homes and apartments totaling just 936,000 this year, the lowest level since 1945.
"The builders are telling us that the financial crisis is really hurting because people justifiably have no idea where things are going," Seiders said.
Before the markets opened, President Bush went to the headquarters of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to say that the $700 billion financial rescue package was "big enough and bold enough to work."
But he cautioned that it would take time to unlock credit markets.
Adam Levitin, an associate professor at Georgetown University Law School, said that even with the government's injection of billions into the banks, the high debt loads carried by consumers and shortage of creditworthy borrowers could continue to chill lending.
"Who's going to lend to GM right now?" Levitin said at a conference organized by the American Bar Association. He also asked what banks would lend money to homeowners with troubled mortgages.
Analysts said new data released Friday showed it's probably too late for the economy to avoid a recession.
Many of them said they now had recessions in their forecasts, believing that the overall economy, as measured by total domestic production, probably shrank in the July-to-September quarter, dragged lower in part by the continued plunge in housing.
"I don't think there is any ambiguity with respect to whether we are in a recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "I think it actually started at the end of last year, and because of the financial panic we are going through now, it is likely to last another year."
Other economists said they were looking for at least three consecutive quarters of contraction, reflecting in part the fact that consumers, who account for two-thirds of total economic activity, are showing the strains of the biggest upheaval in the financial sector in 70 years.
A new University of Michigan/Reuters survey showed consumer confidence plunged in early October to its second-lowest level in the past 28 years.
"Concerns about falling employment, incomes and wealth have overshadowed relief from lower energy prices," said Sara Johnson, an economist at Global Insight, a Lexington, Mass., forecasting firm.
The Commerce Department said Friday that construction of new homes and apartments dropped by a bigger-than-expected 6.3 percent in September to an annual rate of 817,000 units, the second weakest performance in government statistics dating back to 1959. The only weaker monthly showing occurred in January 1991, when the U.S. was in a recession and going through a similar painful housing correction.
In a bleak sign of future construction, applications for new building permits fell a sharp 8.2 percent to an annual rate of 786,000 units, the weakest level in more than 25 years.
The government also sharply revised lower its construction data for July and August. That was after dismal news earlier this week that retail sales fell by 1.2 percent in September.
Influential billionaire investor Warren Buffett said in opinion piece in The New York Times that he sees opportunity in the Wall Street chaos. He's been moving his personal investments from safe Treasuries into U.S. stocks.
"To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions," Buffett wrote. "But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense."
The market eventually will turn around. "So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over," he said.
On the housing front, while the sharp cutbacks in production will help reduce huge inventories of unsold homes, the problem is that rising levels of foreclosures are dumping more homes on the already glutted market.
Zandi said he believed that home prices, which have already fallen by 20 percent, will fall by another 10 percent and will not stabilize until the middle of next year.
Kim Shelpman, the chief executive of Holiday Builders, which operates in Texas, Florida, Alabama and South Carolina, said that her company was competing against a rising tide of foreclosures, but that she believed the excess inventory of homes was being "eaten up at a much quicker pace."
Jesse Barrington, a sale consultant with Sotherby Homes, said the sales slowdown nationwide had been less pronounced in the upscale suburbs of north of Dallas where about 20 homes in a new subdivision had recently sold.
"In a normal economy, this is a good year. In this economy, it's phenomenal," he said.
In the South, sales managed a small 0.5 percent gain in September. They rose by 5.6 percent in the Midwest, where a boost in apartment building offset a slide in single-family homes to a record low.
The weakness last month was led by a 21 percent drop in the Northeast, where construction of single-family units fell to the lowest level on record, and the West, where building slipped by almost 17 percent with single-family construction also hitting a record-low in that region.
On Tuesday, the Treasury Department announced it would inject up to $250 billion in U.S. banks in return for partial ownership stakes, in a program similar to one launched in 1932 by President Herbert Hoover. The government hopes banks will use the capital infusions to rebuild their reserves and bolster lending to customers.
AP Business Writers Jeff Carlton in Dallas and J.W. Elphinstone in New York contributed to this report.
Financial crisis takes toll on battered housing market; Wall St. ends week with relative calm
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation is on track to build fewer homes this year than at any time since the end of World War II, adding to the woes of an economy that analysts said Friday has almost certainly entered a recession.
While the economic outlook darkened even further with bad reports on layoffs and consumer confidence, it was one of the quietest days since the financial meltdown began a month ago. Wall Street's tumultuous week turned out to be its best in five years.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 127 points Friday but turned in the strong week because of two huge days of gains -- a record 936-point jump on Monday and an increase of 401 points Thursday.
Friday was still marked by the huge swings that have become typical lately. At various points the Dow was up nearly 300 points and down nearly 250, and it finished with a triple-digit move for the 22nd time in 25 trading sessions.
A monthly survey by the National Association of Home Builders showed sentiment among home builders hit a record low in early October.
David Seiders, chief economist for the group, said builders are being hit by a double whammy from the financial turmoil: It's harder for them to get loans to pursue new houses, and more difficult to sell those they do build.
He forecast that builders will keep slashing production in coming months, with construction starts for new homes and apartments totaling just 936,000 this year, the lowest level since 1945.
"The builders are telling us that the financial crisis is really hurting because people justifiably have no idea where things are going," Seiders said.
Before the markets opened, President Bush went to the headquarters of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to say that the $700 billion financial rescue package was "big enough and bold enough to work."
But he cautioned that it would take time to unlock credit markets.
Adam Levitin, an associate professor at Georgetown University Law School, said that even with the government's injection of billions into the banks, the high debt loads carried by consumers and shortage of creditworthy borrowers could continue to chill lending.
"Who's going to lend to GM right now?" Levitin said at a conference organized by the American Bar Association. He also asked what banks would lend money to homeowners with troubled mortgages.
Analysts said new data released Friday showed it's probably too late for the economy to avoid a recession.
Many of them said they now had recessions in their forecasts, believing that the overall economy, as measured by total domestic production, probably shrank in the July-to-September quarter, dragged lower in part by the continued plunge in housing.
"I don't think there is any ambiguity with respect to whether we are in a recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "I think it actually started at the end of last year, and because of the financial panic we are going through now, it is likely to last another year."
Other economists said they were looking for at least three consecutive quarters of contraction, reflecting in part the fact that consumers, who account for two-thirds of total economic activity, are showing the strains of the biggest upheaval in the financial sector in 70 years.
A new University of Michigan/Reuters survey showed consumer confidence plunged in early October to its second-lowest level in the past 28 years.
"Concerns about falling employment, incomes and wealth have overshadowed relief from lower energy prices," said Sara Johnson, an economist at Global Insight, a Lexington, Mass., forecasting firm.
The Commerce Department said Friday that construction of new homes and apartments dropped by a bigger-than-expected 6.3 percent in September to an annual rate of 817,000 units, the second weakest performance in government statistics dating back to 1959. The only weaker monthly showing occurred in January 1991, when the U.S. was in a recession and going through a similar painful housing correction.
In a bleak sign of future construction, applications for new building permits fell a sharp 8.2 percent to an annual rate of 786,000 units, the weakest level in more than 25 years.
The government also sharply revised lower its construction data for July and August. That was after dismal news earlier this week that retail sales fell by 1.2 percent in September.
Influential billionaire investor Warren Buffett said in opinion piece in The New York Times that he sees opportunity in the Wall Street chaos. He's been moving his personal investments from safe Treasuries into U.S. stocks.
"To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions," Buffett wrote. "But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense."
The market eventually will turn around. "So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over," he said.
On the housing front, while the sharp cutbacks in production will help reduce huge inventories of unsold homes, the problem is that rising levels of foreclosures are dumping more homes on the already glutted market.
Zandi said he believed that home prices, which have already fallen by 20 percent, will fall by another 10 percent and will not stabilize until the middle of next year.
Kim Shelpman, the chief executive of Holiday Builders, which operates in Texas, Florida, Alabama and South Carolina, said that her company was competing against a rising tide of foreclosures, but that she believed the excess inventory of homes was being "eaten up at a much quicker pace."
Jesse Barrington, a sale consultant with Sotherby Homes, said the sales slowdown nationwide had been less pronounced in the upscale suburbs of north of Dallas where about 20 homes in a new subdivision had recently sold.
"In a normal economy, this is a good year. In this economy, it's phenomenal," he said.
In the South, sales managed a small 0.5 percent gain in September. They rose by 5.6 percent in the Midwest, where a boost in apartment building offset a slide in single-family homes to a record low.
The weakness last month was led by a 21 percent drop in the Northeast, where construction of single-family units fell to the lowest level on record, and the West, where building slipped by almost 17 percent with single-family construction also hitting a record-low in that region.
On Tuesday, the Treasury Department announced it would inject up to $250 billion in U.S. banks in return for partial ownership stakes, in a program similar to one launched in 1932 by President Herbert Hoover. The government hopes banks will use the capital infusions to rebuild their reserves and bolster lending to customers.
AP Business Writers Jeff Carlton in Dallas and J.W. Elphinstone in New York contributed to this report.
Friday, October 17, 2008
5:23 pm - This is a bearish pattern !
One of the bearish pattern I teach in my futures workshop. It works for daily chart.
9:28 am - FKLI gap up due to DJIA +401 pts.
However, it is easing off. If it break 918 today, this is not good !
Thursday, October 16, 2008
4:10 pm - Short this morning at 911 but finally cut at 912-914
After the gap, the FKLI shud go down but it didn't, so I know the short trade not working !
9:46 am - Another selldown day !
Unfortunately, the volatility is too high to carry overnite ! FKLI is testing weekly S1 at 908.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
9:04 am - FKLI is set for lower closing today after lower closing by DJIA
LONG trade is stopped out. Think to go short !
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
9:38 am - DJIA has the biggest gain in 30 years history !
We are at the extreme of the market and no one has seen anything like this !
9:24 am - FKLI gap up due to DJIA +935 pts up !
FKLI is facing a resistance at 985/984. If it can break this resistance, we wud see higher FKLI.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
