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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

12:14 pm - If FKLI closed below 1262, FKLI has a bearish engulfing pattern.


In last Saturday Traders Club held in PCM, I spoke of Bearish Engulfing Pattern which is a bearish pattern for FKLI. If FKLI closed 1260, you can go short and need to carry your position overnite.

11:17 am - The usual with FKLI - Gap up and then sell down !


The range is very tight too due to the institutional rolling over their contracts. With KLCI breaking lower than 1271.0, FKLI is deemed to close lower.

10:10 am - DJIA has some room to fall further !


DJIA tonite might move sideway or down with the next support at 12,300.0

8:52 am - FKLI gap up to open 1270.5


FKLI has formed a doji yesterday and there were no follow thru. If FKLI can close above 1270, FKLI may go sideway or upward. The downtrend has temporarily stopped.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

8:56 am - FKLI looks like there is no selling thru beyond 1260.0


FKLI wud move directionless as there is no indicators except from Hang Seng.

Monday, May 26, 2008

5:19 pm - FKLI daily chart does not look good !


While KLCI is holding above support @ 1271, but FKLI is selling down, making it difficult to read FKLI due to institiutional rollover.

2:33 pm - FKLI is holding up nicely. If FKLI closed above 1265.0, this is good !


12:06 am - FCPO finally broke 3700 for the 3rd time.


It is important for FCPO to hold and close above 3,703 today !

9:45 am - KLCI is likely to form a double bottom at the major support 1271


If this hold, KLCI i.e. FKLI wud rally the next few days.

9:31 am - FKLI gap down due to DJIA lower closing last Friday !


We have reduce our SHORT position. There is still weakness in our FKLI. Stay aside as this week is also ROLLOVER week for the institiutional.

Saturday, May 24, 2008

8:02 am - Stocks fall as oil prices stir economic worries

NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street ended a week of big losses with more sellingFriday as rising oil prices again raised worries that strained consumers willcut back spending and hurt the overall economy. The Dow Jones industrials fellnearly 150 points in the final session before the three-day holiday weekend. Investors are uneasy about consumers, who at the start of Memorial Dayweekend are paying gasoline prices that have gone up nearly 20 percent, or 65cents a gallon, in the past year. Wall Street's fear is that consumers, who account for more than two-thirdsof U.S. economic activity, will pare spending to make room in their budgets forgas that has topped $4 a gallon in some parts of the country. Light, sweet crude rose $1.38 to settle at $132.19 per barrel on the NewYork Mercantile Exchange. Oil saw its third weekly gain after surging to arecord $135.09 a barrel on Thursday. Some investors are buying on the beliefthat global demand from countries like China and India will outstrip supply. Aweak dollar also makes each barrel more expensive. "Crude oil is still weighing on the market and particularly because this isa traditional driving holiday," said Chris Orndorff, director of equity strategyat Payden & Rygel in Los Angeles. The concerns sent Dow down 145.99, or 1.16 percent, to 12,479.63. Broader stock indicators also declined. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell18.42, or 1.32 percent, to 1,375.93, and the Nasdaq composite index slid 19.91,or 0.81 percent, to 2,444.67. For the week, the Dow lost 3.91 percent, suffering its worst week sinceFebruary, while the S&P 500 gave up 3.47 percent and the Nasdaq fell 3.33percent. The economic fallout from higher energy prices commanded Wall Street's focusduring the week. Stocks managed to post gains Thursday following the Dow'sbiggest two-day loss since late February. Despite the declines in the majorindexes for the week, stocks are off their mid-March lows. The Dow is still up6.3 percent from its close of 11,740.15 on March 10, when credit concernsweighed on the market. "I think while the eye of the credit storm may have passed, the tidewater isstill rising on the consumer and investors can't lose sight of that," said JackAblin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. He noted thathigher gas prices had led some vacationers to reduce how far they plan to travelfor the holiday. "It is taking a toll on the consumer and it remains to be seen how that willimpact corporate earnings." Beyond consumers, investors worried about the harm higher energy prices arehaving on businesses. The rise in oil hammered sectors such as airlines.Continental Airlines Inc. fell nearly 27 percent for the week, while UnitedAirlines parent UAL Corp. dropped nearly 46 percent. Bond prices rose Friday as investors sought the safety of government debt.The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite itsprice, fell to 3.85 percent from 3.92 percent late Thursday. The dollar fell, while gold prices rose. Orndorff said the spike in oil has rekindled concerns about stagflation --when stalling growth accompanies rising prices. "Given that inflation remains stubbornly high, then the Fed is going to beless accommodative going forward so we may end up a period of sluggish growth instubbornly higher inflation," he said, referring to possible interest rate cutsfrom the Federal Reserve. Minutes released this week from the last meeting ofthe central bank's rate-setting arm doused some investors' hopes thatpolicymakers will again cut rates to aid the economy when they meet at the endof June. Orndorff predicts investors will need further evidence on how the economy isfaring before they resume taking stocks back toward the highs seen last fall. "I think the market for the most part is going to be in a somewhat narrowtrading range until you get the earnings that come out in July. I think that'sgoing to be an important quarter as people see how the effects of the globaleconomy slowing are affecting the companies." A Financial Times report that brewing company InBev is readying a $46billion takeover bid for Budweiser maker Anheuser-Busch Cos. failed to shakeWall Street from its downcast mood. Often, buyout activity is fodder for a rallyin stocks as it as seen as a bullish sign for the economy. But the buyingappeared limited to the St. Louis brewer, whose shares hit an all-time high.Anheuser-Busch rose finished up $4.03, or 7.7 percent, to $56.61 after tradingas high as $58. American Axle and Manufacturing Holdings Inc. fell 81 cents, or 4.2 percent,to $18.44 after the company said that workers approved a contract including paycuts and other concessions. The vote ends a strike that lasted nearly threemonths, hurting General Motors Corp.'s production of large sport utilityvehicles and pickups. Although the contract's ratification will benefit GM, autostocks saw pressure during the week because of soaring fuel prices. GM was thesteepest decliner among the 30 stocks that comprise the Dow industrials, falling83 cents, or 4.5 percent, to $17.60. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 7 to 3 on the New York StockExchange, where consolidated volume came to 3.43 billion shares compared with3.85 billion shares traded Thursday. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 8.91, or 1.22 percent, to724.10. In overseas trade, Tokyo's Nikkei closed rose 0.24 percent. In Europe,London's FTSE ended down 1.53 percent, Frankfurt's DAX fell 1.79 percent andParis' CAC 40 shed 1.89 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week down 507.17, or 3.91percent, at 12,479.63. The Standard & Poor's 500 index finished down 49.42, or3.47 percent, at 1,375.93. The Nasdaq composite index ended the week down 84.18,or 3.33 percent, at 2,444.67. The Russell 2000 index finished the week down 17.07, or 2.3 percent, at724.10. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted indexthat measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended Friday at 13,954.47, down469.28 points, or 3.25 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at15,348.10. Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be

Friday, May 23, 2008

9:27 pm - Wall Street tilts to lower open ahead of data

NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street tilted toward a lower open Friday as investorsawaited a report on existing home sales and adjusted their portfolios before thethree-day holiday weekend. The National Association of Realtors is expected to report that existinghome sales dipped in April to a record low, an indication that the housingmarket showed no signs of recovery during the spring sales season. The report isscheduled for release at 10 a.m. EDT; sales are forecast to have fallen 1.6percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.85 million units, down from4.93 million in March, according to Thomson/IFR. Oil prices are set for a third weekly gain after surging to a record $135.09a barrel on Thursday. Investors are buying on the belief that supply can't keepup with growing global demand from countries like China and India. Crude fellback in overnight trading, but was recently up $1.76 at $132.56 a barrel inpremarket trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The economic fallout from higher energy prices remained Wall Street's focusthis week. Stocks rose moderately Thursday after two sessions of steep declines,with the Dow Jones industrial average recording its biggest two-day loss sincelate February. Dow futures fell 51, or 0.34 percent, to 12,565. Standard & Poor's 500 indexfutures shed 6.00, or 0.43 percent, to 1,387.20, and the Nasdaq 100 futuresdropped 6.00, or 0.31 percent, to 1,960.50. Despite the declines of more than 2 percent in the major indexes this week,stocks are off their mid-March lows. The Dow is still up 7.5 percent from itsclose of 11,740.15 on March 10. Bond prices edged higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note,which moves opposite its yield, fell to 3.87 percent from 3.92 percent lateThursday. The dollar was mostly higher against other major currencies, and gold wasalso higher. In corporate news, Gap Inc. reported late Thursday that first-quarter profitsurpassed Wall Street projections. The retailer said it boosted profit by 40percent by better managing inventory and cutting costs. There was also deal talk going into the holiday weekend. Halliburton Co.,the world's second-largest oilfield services company, made a $3.4 billion bid toacquire British rival Expro International Group. Yahoo Inc. late Thursday said in regulatory filing that it pushed its annualshareholders meeting to an undetermined date in late July. The move was seengiving the Internet portal more time to prepare a defense -- or negotiate a saleto Microsoft Corp. American Axle and Manufacturing Holdings Inc. might rise after the companysaid late Thursday that workers approved a new contract including pay cuts andother concessions. The vote ends a strike that lasted nearly three months,hurting General Motors Corp.'s production of large sport utility vehicles andpickup trucks. Although the contract's ratification will benefit GM, auto stockshave been under pressure this week because of soaring fuel prices. In overseas trade, Tokyo's Nikkei closed rose 0.24 percent. In Europe,London's FTSE dropped 0.90 percent, Frankfurt's DAX fell 0.57 percent and Paris'CAC 40 shed 1.10 percent. Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be

5:25 pm - FKLI closed below 1280 and at 1270.0


The chart does not look good ! Exit some LONG position at 1272 for those with multiple lots.

10:48 am - FKLI has to close above 1280 today to have a convincing reversal !


If it cannot close above 1280, FKLI might move sideway or downtrend.

10:11 am - FKLI hits all short seller stop - Short seller is out of the market !


Time to go long ! Long at 1281.5/1282

9:34 am - DJIA has a small doji with low volume.


DJIA still has room to move down based on the volume. DJIA wud most probability tonite move sideway or down !

9:29 am - FKLI is ready to move up ?


Looking at today, FKLI has to break and close above 1279.5/1280 before going long.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

5:40 pm - FKLI is trotting along in par with DJIA


If DJIA were to recover, our FKLI shud be turning up ! Let's see how DJIA wud fare tonite. DJIA has been down 2 days almost 380 pts down. It shud pop up tonite !

11:09 am - Dollar Falls for Third Day Against Yen as Oil Prices Surge

Dollar Falls for Third Day Against Yen as Oil Prices Surge
By Kosuke Goto and Yumi Teso
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for a third day against the yen on speculation a surge in oil prices to a record will accelerate inflation while slowing economic growth in the U.S., the world's biggest oil importer.
The currency weakened to the lowest level in almost two weeks versus the yen and to a one-month low against the euro before a government report that will probably show falling U.S. house prices. The Australian dollar traded near its highest since being allowed to trade freely in 1983 as investors sought the nation's higher-yielding debt.
``The U.S. economy is vulnerable to surging oil prices,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital, Britain's third-biggest lender. ``Stagflation risks in the U.S. are rising, buffeting the dollar.''
The dollar slid to 102.74 yen, the lowest level since May 12, before trading at 11:12 a.m. in Tokyo from 103.05 in New York yesterday. It also fell to $1.5801 per euro, the lowest level since April 24, before trading at $1.5791 from $1.5795. The euro fell to 162.35 yen from 162.76 yen.
The U.S. currency may weaken to $1.59 per euro and 101 yen in one month, Umemoto said.
The yen remained higher against the dollar after a Japanese government report showed export growth quickened in April. Overseas shipments, the driver of more than half of last quarter's expansion, rose 4 percent from a year earlier.
Pound, Franc
The dollar traded at $1.9733 against the British pound from $1.9732, and was at 1.0238 versus the Swiss franc from 1.0250. The Federal Reserve cut its 2008 economic growth projections to a range of 0.3 percent to 1.2 percent from its January forecast of 1.3 percent to 2 percent, according to minutes of its April meeting.
The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the dollar against currencies of six trading partners, fell to 71.879, from 71.938 yesterday.
The Australian dollar climbed to as high as 96.54 U.S. yesterday, before trading at 96.39 cents, compared with 96.25 in New York yesterday. The Aussie has risen 9.6 percent this year, the second-biggest gainer among the 16 most-traded currencies.
A report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight today will show U.S. house prices fell 1.3 percent in the first quarter, according to the median forecast of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The euro held gains after the price of crude oil increased to more than $135 a barrel and German business confidence unexpectedly rose, bolstering speculation the European Central Bank won't lower interest rates.
``As long as oil continues to go up, the ECB is going to preserve its hawkishness and is going to reduce any chance of them cutting rates,'' said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst in New York at CMC Markets in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``That's why it's a direct positive for the euro.''
Fed Minutes
The dollar fell yesterday after minutes of the Fed's April meeting showed most policy makers viewed the decision to cut the benchmark interest rate to 2 percent as ``a close call,'' judging risks between weaker growth and faster inflation had become more balanced.
``Although the economy could do with some monetary help, the Fed is in a very tight bind as inflation picks up,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto.
The yield advantage of a two-year German bund over a comparable Treasury note rose to 1.72 percent, the most since April 9.
`Still Weakening'
``We'll see another leg of dollar weakness and will head toward $1.60,'' near the record low of $1.6019 per euro set on April 22, said Dustin Reid, a senior currency strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Chicago. ``The U.S. economy is still weakening.''
The correlation coefficient between oil prices and the euro-dollar exchange rate has been 0.95 for the past year, indicating they have moved in the same direction 95 percent of the time. The ECB has left its benchmark rate at a 6 1/2-year high of 4 percent since June and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said last month there is ``strong short-term upward pressure on inflation.''
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show traders see an 88 percent chance the Fed will keep its target rate for overnight lending between banks at 2 percent on June 25, down from a 94 percent chance one week ago. Traders also see a 21 percent chance the Fed will lift the target in September to 2.25 percent, down from a 29 percent chance a week earlier.
The euro may rise to $1.5850 against the dollar in one week, based on charts used to predict price movements, said Masashi Hashimoto, a senior currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.
Technical Charts
The currency has held above so-called support at the 5-day and 21-day moving averages of $1.5663 and $1.5553, respectively, signaling further gains, Hashimoto said in Tokyo. Support is where buyers are expected to outweigh sellers.
The so-called resistance level of $1.5850 represents a 76.4 percent reversal of the euro's slide to a low of $1.5285 on May 8, from a record high of $1.6019 on April 22, based on a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence. Resistance is a level where selling is expected to outweigh buying.
The yen gained against the Brazilian real and the South African rand, favorites of so-called carry trades, as a decline in stocks prompted investors to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in the Japanese currency.
``Stocks may extend declines which translates into a stronger yen,'' said Hideki Hayashi, chief economist at Shinko Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``People are unwinding higher-yielding assets and their carry trades.''
The yen may strengthen to 102 per dollar this month, Hayashi said.
Carry Trades
The yen strengthened to 62.0165 against the Brazilian real, compared with 62.1795 yesterday in New York. It rose to 13.29973 per rand from 13.3239, as investors trimmed carry trades, in which they get funds in a nation with low rates and invest where returns are higher. The risk is currency swings erase profits.
One-month implied volatility for dollar-yen options rose to 12.7 percent today from 12.45 percent. Japan's 0.5 percent target lending rate compares with 11.75 percent in Brazil and 11.5 percent in South Africa. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8 percent today.

10:17 am - FKLI is just moving sideway as cash market has recovered back !