Monday, February 16, 2009
Friday, February 13, 2009
10:26 pm - DJIA is testing on average volume.
I wud be careful tonite if DJIA wud break lower. Technically, DJIA has closed just above 7,900 support level.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
3:16 pm - DJIA is testing on low volume.
I expect it to hold on its support tonite. DJIA is likely to close lower.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
10:48 am - This Saturday, Special Talk + Traders Club Meeting Feb 14, 2009
You are invited for this special talk - Sat, Feb 14 2009, 10 am, CIMB Auditorium, Jalan Semantan
Speakers:
1) Market Outlook 2009 - Nigel Foo, CIMB Analyst
2) Session sharing from traders club member.
3) Building trader confidence & minimizing the struggle with fear - Bill Wermine
4) Special Report on FKLI Futures Trading - Martin Wong
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
5:12 pm - Market Report by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
Event: On 14 Feb from 10 AM to 1 PM we are holding our Traders Club meeting at CIMB Auditorium Damansara . (Map attached- the auditorium is next to IBBM) We have Nigel Foo, head of research for CIMB to give a 2009 market outlook and shares to look at. In 2008, He correctly predicted the 42 % drop in the KLSE, the 70 % drop in Crude Palm Oil and the collapse in crude oil.
What is his current forecast ? You would be surprised.
One of our club members from Jakarta is flying over to share his recent trades in the US market + point and figure strategies in the CI CPO futures by Martin. I may speak on opportunities in the China as well as localmarket.
Please confirm your attendance as CIMB will provide refreshments.
Shanghai is up over 22 % from its low and has had an 18 day line change up - one of the most powerful indicators of trend change. This is a Turtle Traders indicator.
PMI figures in China moved from 41.2 to 45.3 % in December stunning the markets who were expecting a drop and the first hopeful sign that the horrific meltdown in the base metals might finally be at a bottom. New orders for exports and production rose strongly indicating that Bejing's 4 trillion Yuan (186 billion RM) stimulus plan has already started to have a positive impact.
Chinese banks have extended about 1.2 Trillion yuan in new loans in January, a monthly record in calls by the government to halt the economies decline.
Copper traders in Shanghai have lifted the red metal over 12 % from the lows while stockpiles have dwindled to a record low.
From a contrary point of view: Before the 75 % collapse in the Shanghai Index, beginning in the 4th quarter of 2007 there was heavy promotion of China Country funds. I counted at least 12 full page ads for China funds.
Many sheeps went to the slaughter house.
For the last few weeks as Shanghai had a powerful rally, I did not see one news ad for a China fund. It looks like the Tigers are quietly buying. For those with Phillip Singapore Wrap acounts we offer several China funds but obviously you need to manage your risks. I can help you choose a good one and if interested give me or Martin a call.
The recovery in China and base metals will definitely support Malaysia, Australia, Korea, Hong Kong stock markets and the AUD Man funds as well as the AUD.
The Chinese as well as most Asian economies are on much more stable footing than the US/ UK. The Chinese economy is run prudently and the banks are sitting on top of huge cash reserves.
The Chinese economy is built on savings and productivity as opposed to the US economy which is built on debt, living and spending beyond ones means. Many big name Investment banks and money center banks are built on a culture of fraud with the collusion of corrupt politicians and SEC regulators. No wonder scared savers have lost trust in the US banks and have rushed into Treasury bonds that pay almost no return. Many prominent US banks are technically insolvent
In China a corrupt banker will be shot at the execution ground with a bullet in the back of his head. In America the corrupt banker will get a multimillion dollar bonus paid by the taxpayer as part of the stimulus bailut plan ! Even the arch con man Bernie Madoff who stole upwards of USD 50 billion from thousands of investors continues to live in luxury in his 4 million condo. Because of his political connections he is untouchable. Some cheated investor hopefully should put a bullet in his head.
I am grateful to be living and working in Malaysia where our financial system is on real ground rather than fantasy land.
While technical analysis concentrate on price and volume, fundamentalists focus on economic forces that drive the economy
. Fundamentists study the cause while technical traders study the effect. Most traders use a combination of both approaches. The problem is that charts and fundamentals are often in conflict with each other. Usually at the beginning of market moves, the fundamentals do not explain or support what the market is doing. These are the critical times which traders looking for certainty and confirmation will miss the boat. Once the market moves the fundamentals are evident but it is too late.
It is like a bouncing ball. The most acceleration happens when the ball hits the support. Once the ball goes up it loses momentum and falls back.
Event: On 14 Feb from 10 AM to 1 PM we are holding our Traders Club meeting at CIMB Auditorium Damansara . (Map attached- the auditorium is next to IBBM) We have Nigel Foo, head of research for CIMB to give a 2009 market outlook and shares to look at. In 2008, He correctly predicted the 42 % drop in the KLSE, the 70 % drop in Crude Palm Oil and the collapse in crude oil.
What is his current forecast ? You would be surprised.
One of our club members from Jakarta is flying over to share his recent trades in the US market + point and figure strategies in the CI CPO futures by Martin. I may speak on opportunities in the China as well as localmarket.
Please confirm your attendance as CIMB will provide refreshments.
Shanghai is up over 22 % from its low and has had an 18 day line change up - one of the most powerful indicators of trend change. This is a Turtle Traders indicator.
PMI figures in China moved from 41.2 to 45.3 % in December stunning the markets who were expecting a drop and the first hopeful sign that the horrific meltdown in the base metals might finally be at a bottom. New orders for exports and production rose strongly indicating that Bejing's 4 trillion Yuan (186 billion RM) stimulus plan has already started to have a positive impact.
Chinese banks have extended about 1.2 Trillion yuan in new loans in January, a monthly record in calls by the government to halt the economies decline.
Copper traders in Shanghai have lifted the red metal over 12 % from the lows while stockpiles have dwindled to a record low.
From a contrary point of view: Before the 75 % collapse in the Shanghai Index, beginning in the 4th quarter of 2007 there was heavy promotion of China Country funds. I counted at least 12 full page ads for China funds.
Many sheeps went to the slaughter house.
For the last few weeks as Shanghai had a powerful rally, I did not see one news ad for a China fund. It looks like the Tigers are quietly buying. For those with Phillip Singapore Wrap acounts we offer several China funds but obviously you need to manage your risks. I can help you choose a good one and if interested give me or Martin a call.
The recovery in China and base metals will definitely support Malaysia, Australia, Korea, Hong Kong stock markets and the AUD Man funds as well as the AUD.
The Chinese as well as most Asian economies are on much more stable footing than the US/ UK. The Chinese economy is run prudently and the banks are sitting on top of huge cash reserves.
The Chinese economy is built on savings and productivity as opposed to the US economy which is built on debt, living and spending beyond ones means. Many big name Investment banks and money center banks are built on a culture of fraud with the collusion of corrupt politicians and SEC regulators. No wonder scared savers have lost trust in the US banks and have rushed into Treasury bonds that pay almost no return. Many prominent US banks are technically insolvent
In China a corrupt banker will be shot at the execution ground with a bullet in the back of his head. In America the corrupt banker will get a multimillion dollar bonus paid by the taxpayer as part of the stimulus bailut plan ! Even the arch con man Bernie Madoff who stole upwards of USD 50 billion from thousands of investors continues to live in luxury in his 4 million condo. Because of his political connections he is untouchable. Some cheated investor hopefully should put a bullet in his head.
I am grateful to be living and working in Malaysia where our financial system is on real ground rather than fantasy land.
While technical analysis concentrate on price and volume, fundamentalists focus on economic forces that drive the economy
. Fundamentists study the cause while technical traders study the effect. Most traders use a combination of both approaches. The problem is that charts and fundamentals are often in conflict with each other. Usually at the beginning of market moves, the fundamentals do not explain or support what the market is doing. These are the critical times which traders looking for certainty and confirmation will miss the boat. Once the market moves the fundamentals are evident but it is too late.
It is like a bouncing ball. The most acceleration happens when the ball hits the support. Once the ball goes up it loses momentum and falls back.
For those with Ameritrade accounts check out FCX Freeport McMoran which is a play on copper. It has formed a classic stage 1, support has been tested 6 times as of this writing and each test is on lower volume meaning selling has dried up. FCX has collapsed from 116 USD per share and is now at USD 27. Risk 20 % from this level with the chance of a 100 % return within 6 months. News is really bad but remember bad news is the friend of the smart money buyers.
Have a good week ahead and continue to focus on high grade blue chip KLSE shares which pay dividends.
Bill
Have a good week ahead and continue to focus on high grade blue chip KLSE shares which pay dividends.
Bill
Saturday, February 07, 2009
10:08 am - Stocks rise as investors look past January jobs data; Senate vote on stimulus looms
FKLI market is expected to gap up on Tuesday if DJIA trend continue to be up.
Stocks rise as investors look past January jobs data; Senate vote on stimulus looms
NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors have taken another big gamble on the government's plans to help the economy -- hoping that this one will finally work.
All the major indexes rose more than 2 percent Friday, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which rose more than 200 points as Wall Street looked past another bleak jobs report and awaited word from Washington about an economic stimulus plan and changes to the government's financial rescue program. The advance helped propel the indexes to their first winning week after four straight weeks of losses, and put the Nasdaq composite in positive territory for the year to date.
The Senate was expected to vote on its version of a stimulus plan that would include a mix of spending and tax cuts. The Senate bill would cost $937 billion; the House already passed a similar version.
Financial stocks led the market as investors also awaited the government's latest revisions to its lifeline for banks. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and other top officials are close to finishing a plan to overhaul the government's $700 billion financial rescue fund. Geithner is expected to announce the changes in a speech on Monday.
Some investors were worried that the changes would involve nationalizing many banks and, in the process, wiping out shareholders. Many investors are hoping the plan will relax rules requiring businesses to assign a value to all of their assets each quarter. Advocates say altering the rule even temporarily could make it easier for banks to lend without worrying about depleting their cash reserves and running afoul of accounting standards.
Investors waiting for word on the government's plans were unfazed by a terrible employment reading. The Labor Department said U.S. employers slashed 598,000 jobs in January, the most since late 1974. The unemployment rate rose to 7.6 percent, the highest since late 1992.
"All focus right now is now is really on Washington," said Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets in Chicago. He said investors are hoping the unemployment report was bad enough to goad lawmakers into swift action on the stimulus plan.
Scott Fullman, director of derivatives investment strategy for WJB Capital Group in New York, said investors now are wondering "will government stimulus stop this virus that's spreading throughout the country?"
Cook said investors are eager for the stimulus plan to pass even if it takes time to work its way into the economy, as many economists predict.
"We just want to see a plan and have a direction," he said. "We can adjust from there and make moves on the fly."
But analysts caution that the plan won't repair the economy's problems overnight.
"As the realization sets in that this is going to take some time to work its way into the system confidence could wane a bit," said Matt King, chief investment officer for Bell Investment Advisors, in Oakland, Calif. In that case, the market would be following its pattern in recent months as other government steps were unveiled -- early euphoria dissipated as the reality of a troubled economy set in.
The Dow industrials rose 217.52, or 2.70 percent, to 8,280.59 after rising 106 on Thursday.
Broader stock indicators also jumped. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 22.75, or 2.69 percent, to 868.60, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 45.47, or 2.94 percent, to 1,591.71.
The day's gains have left the Nasdaq higher for the year; investors have been turning to the index's tech stocks on the belief they will help lead the market higher. The Nasdaq ended the week with a huge 7.81 percent gain, while the Dow was up 3.5 percent and the S&P 500 rose 5.17 percent.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 15.62, or 3.43 percent, to 470.70. It rose 6.13 percent for the week.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 5 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 6.38 billion shares compared with 6.51 billion shares traded Thursday.
On Thursday, the major indexes soared more than 1 percent as Wall Street shrugged off troubling economic reports and searched for bargains among battered retail and technology stocks.
Bond prices were mixed Friday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.99 percent from 2.92 percent late Thursday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.27 percent from 0.26 percent.
The dollar was mostly higher against other major currencies. Gold prices edged higher.
Light, sweet crude fell $1 to $40.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Friday's rally reflects fear among some investors that they will miss out on a jump in stocks if the government comes up with the right mix of medicine for the economy, King said. Some of the buying was also likely the result of short covering -- investors who borrowed stock and sold it on expections the market would fall had to buy stock to repay the loans.
Many of the Friday's steepest gains occurred in hard-hit parts of the market like financials and retailers.
Financial stocks rose. Bank of America Corp. jumped $1.29, or 26.7 percent, to $6.13, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. rose $3.09, or 12.6 percent, to $27.63. Smaller banks also rose. Fifth Third Bancorp rose 99 cents, or 60.4 percent, to $2.63. State Street Corp. advanced $2.95, or 10.7 percent, to $30.49.
Among retailers, Macy's Inc. advanced 95 cents, or 10.9 percent, to $9.70.
Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.49 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 2.97 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 1.84 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.60 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week up 279.73, or 3.50 percent, at 8,280.59. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 42.72, or 5.17 percent, to 868.60. The Nasdaq composite index rose 115.29, or 7.81 percent, closing at 1,591.71.
The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the performance of small company stocks, rose 27.17, or 6.13 percent, to 470.70.
The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended at 8,785.09, up 449.45 points, or 5.39 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 13,418.18.
Stocks rise as investors look past January jobs data; Senate vote on stimulus looms
NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors have taken another big gamble on the government's plans to help the economy -- hoping that this one will finally work.
All the major indexes rose more than 2 percent Friday, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which rose more than 200 points as Wall Street looked past another bleak jobs report and awaited word from Washington about an economic stimulus plan and changes to the government's financial rescue program. The advance helped propel the indexes to their first winning week after four straight weeks of losses, and put the Nasdaq composite in positive territory for the year to date.
The Senate was expected to vote on its version of a stimulus plan that would include a mix of spending and tax cuts. The Senate bill would cost $937 billion; the House already passed a similar version.
Financial stocks led the market as investors also awaited the government's latest revisions to its lifeline for banks. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and other top officials are close to finishing a plan to overhaul the government's $700 billion financial rescue fund. Geithner is expected to announce the changes in a speech on Monday.
Some investors were worried that the changes would involve nationalizing many banks and, in the process, wiping out shareholders. Many investors are hoping the plan will relax rules requiring businesses to assign a value to all of their assets each quarter. Advocates say altering the rule even temporarily could make it easier for banks to lend without worrying about depleting their cash reserves and running afoul of accounting standards.
Investors waiting for word on the government's plans were unfazed by a terrible employment reading. The Labor Department said U.S. employers slashed 598,000 jobs in January, the most since late 1974. The unemployment rate rose to 7.6 percent, the highest since late 1992.
"All focus right now is now is really on Washington," said Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets in Chicago. He said investors are hoping the unemployment report was bad enough to goad lawmakers into swift action on the stimulus plan.
Scott Fullman, director of derivatives investment strategy for WJB Capital Group in New York, said investors now are wondering "will government stimulus stop this virus that's spreading throughout the country?"
Cook said investors are eager for the stimulus plan to pass even if it takes time to work its way into the economy, as many economists predict.
"We just want to see a plan and have a direction," he said. "We can adjust from there and make moves on the fly."
But analysts caution that the plan won't repair the economy's problems overnight.
"As the realization sets in that this is going to take some time to work its way into the system confidence could wane a bit," said Matt King, chief investment officer for Bell Investment Advisors, in Oakland, Calif. In that case, the market would be following its pattern in recent months as other government steps were unveiled -- early euphoria dissipated as the reality of a troubled economy set in.
The Dow industrials rose 217.52, or 2.70 percent, to 8,280.59 after rising 106 on Thursday.
Broader stock indicators also jumped. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 22.75, or 2.69 percent, to 868.60, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 45.47, or 2.94 percent, to 1,591.71.
The day's gains have left the Nasdaq higher for the year; investors have been turning to the index's tech stocks on the belief they will help lead the market higher. The Nasdaq ended the week with a huge 7.81 percent gain, while the Dow was up 3.5 percent and the S&P 500 rose 5.17 percent.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 15.62, or 3.43 percent, to 470.70. It rose 6.13 percent for the week.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 5 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 6.38 billion shares compared with 6.51 billion shares traded Thursday.
On Thursday, the major indexes soared more than 1 percent as Wall Street shrugged off troubling economic reports and searched for bargains among battered retail and technology stocks.
Bond prices were mixed Friday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.99 percent from 2.92 percent late Thursday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.27 percent from 0.26 percent.
The dollar was mostly higher against other major currencies. Gold prices edged higher.
Light, sweet crude fell $1 to $40.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Friday's rally reflects fear among some investors that they will miss out on a jump in stocks if the government comes up with the right mix of medicine for the economy, King said. Some of the buying was also likely the result of short covering -- investors who borrowed stock and sold it on expections the market would fall had to buy stock to repay the loans.
Many of the Friday's steepest gains occurred in hard-hit parts of the market like financials and retailers.
Financial stocks rose. Bank of America Corp. jumped $1.29, or 26.7 percent, to $6.13, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. rose $3.09, or 12.6 percent, to $27.63. Smaller banks also rose. Fifth Third Bancorp rose 99 cents, or 60.4 percent, to $2.63. State Street Corp. advanced $2.95, or 10.7 percent, to $30.49.
Among retailers, Macy's Inc. advanced 95 cents, or 10.9 percent, to $9.70.
Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.49 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 2.97 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 1.84 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.60 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week up 279.73, or 3.50 percent, at 8,280.59. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 42.72, or 5.17 percent, to 868.60. The Nasdaq composite index rose 115.29, or 7.81 percent, closing at 1,591.71.
The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the performance of small company stocks, rose 27.17, or 6.13 percent, to 470.70.
The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended at 8,785.09, up 449.45 points, or 5.39 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 13,418.18.
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