James Fry:
CPO prices are expected to fall below $400 a tonne by April next year as CO is expected to dip below $35 a barrel.M'sian PO stock could range between 1.9 to 2.0 mt for the next 6 months.Chinese demand expected to remain flat for four more months.M'sia should implement its new biodiesel mandates as the raw materials are ample and to avoid some clout politically.
GAPKI:
Forecast: Av. CPO price cif Rotterdam would be $500-$600 (RM 1800- RM 2100) a tonne. Below $450 (RM 1600)a tonne if the current crisis deepens.Indon's PO output growth expected to slow next year on replanting and less fertilizer usage due to low prices.PO output to rise 8.5% in 2009 to 20.25 mt. This is higher than govt.'s forecast of 19.4 mt. (In current year it is higher by 10% to 18.8 mt.)
DORAB MISTRY:
CPO prices to hover around RM 1,500 ($415) a tonne in next 8 to 10 weeks - till mid feb'09.PO output growth to slow down from Dec'08 due to change in biological cycle - yield stress after months of solid production.This could alter PO'S relationship with SBO which stood at a $350 premium in Nov at Rotterdam. The large discount could able to capture markets and expected to narrow in coming months.In the last two months, palm has attracted new markets such as Middle East and Eastern Europe apart from its traditional market.It remains to be seen if this results in greater consumption or substitution by palm in place of more expensive oils or is just a case shifting stocks
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