5:49 pm - Institution rollover of Jan to Feb 2006 completed

As the rollover is almost completed, FKLI for Feb hits high at 914. Trail stop to 909.0

12:12 pnm - FKLI cannot go higher.

Since FKLi is approaching the 20+ bars, tighten stop to 906.0

10:15 am - FKLI Feb hits high at 910

Trade #16 is trailed up to 905.5. In the money.

9:22 pm - FKLI Jan/Feb hit high at 907/912

Trade #16 is on Feb mth. Trail stop to 902.5. Trade is in the money.

12:04 pm - FKLI MACD cross up and buy signal is on.

Trade #16 is on. Long is on at 900.0.

Stop loss at 896.5

12:28 pm - FKLI showing bullish divergence

There is long setup coming soon. The FKLI price is moving down but the MACD is moving higher.


Watch out and tighten trade #15 to 901.0

11:53 am - Late update Trade #15 - Short at 903.5

Trade #15 short is triggered at 903.5.

Stop loss at 901.5

11:11 am - FKLI is in downtrend. CNY rally is over

The daily FKLI MACD has crossed down. It looks like a short position from now onwards.

CNY rally is over.

10:45 am - Trade #14 stop is triggered at 906.5

Loss of 3 pts.

10:28 am - This Jan mth is ending earlier due to CNY

We wud have shorter trading month. So the last trading is 27th Jan, 2006.

Therefore, institution wud be doing their mthly rollover of contract and MACD cross over gives occasional false buy or sell signal.

It is best to stay out during these time.

10:22 am - Trail stop higher to 906.5

I may close this trade if the MACD abt to cross down.

4:43 pm - Trail stop to 905

IF FKLI close above 908, it is in a good position.

12:45 pm - Trade #14 is on - Long at 909.5

Stop loss at 904.0 pt.

10:00 am - FKLI needs to break 909.5/909

FKLI needs to break these level to go long.

9:55 am - FKLI long setup is on

FKLI long setup i.e. MACD abt to cross up. However, FKLI gap up meaning likely to selldown.

Daily pivot at
R1 = 908.5
P = 905
S1 = 902.5

FKLi need to break 908.5 convincely for long buy signal.

1:55 pm - FKLI falls further

Yes, it can fall further but look for long setup and buy signal.

3:56 pm - Past this trade !

The MACD first crosses on the 12 Jan 06. Taking a short position now is not MACD system. It has been downtrend over 3 days.

Skip this trade as the short signal is mixed (not clear).

2:01 pm - Look to go short for FKLI

Look to go short at 913.5/913.0. MACD has cross down.

Bollinger Bands is narrowing and it can expand upside or downside. If it breaks upside, go long else breaks downside, go short.

3:00 pm - FKLI may be trending sideway from now.

Shorts are covering their position but longs are not buying. This is a FKLI sideway market.

2:49 pm - FKLI - Lot of short covering activities

Due to short covering their short position, FKLI hits higher to 919.

Look for long setup and buy signal at this point.

FKLI hits triple bottom at 912.5/913.0. It has strong support at this triple bottom.

10:15 am - FKLI breaking MA 50 today.

FKLi is trading at the mid of MACD. So I wud wait for the next cross down to short. Pass this one.

5:40 pm - FKLI hits retracement hit of 61.8%

From the Fibo no. FKLI does not look it can go up. The major resistance to break is 925.0 pt and FKLI hit 923.5 pts.

The EOD candlestick is a long doji tail - topping tail. Sign of resistance is strong.

FKLI is showing sign of bearish divergence. Look for short position now rather than long position.

Watch for the short setup and sell signal.

5:40 pm - FKLI hit high and go nowhere from here !

Trade #13 was triggered at 919.5 and stop out at 917.0 where MACD cross up this morning.

The trade was in and out within one day. This is a significant event as FKLI have exhausted its bullish run. The FKLI is evidently showing bearish divergence.

Trade #13 ended with a loss of 2.5 pts.

Lookup for FKLI to cross down at MA 50 to go short from here.

Think of short position more than long.

11:44 am - FKLI long position wud be at the eod

Wait for the FKLI price to come to you.

10:25 am - FKLI has crossed down. FKLI is overbought.

The FKLI has eased off its buying and into selling terrority. Look for long position at 916.5/917. Wait for setup and buy signal.

11:29 am - FKLI weekly range average for this week is 32.5 pts.

The max weekly range average for year 2005 is 33.5 pts.

Can FKLI breaks 917 ? Maybe but it is statistically against me to trend against the trend.

I waiting for Trade #13 to go long and short if below 50MA.

11:12 am - Trade #12 stopped out at 910.5

This is good start for the year 2006. Profit +19.5 pts for trade #12

I was in the trade for 19 bars.

It is interesting to note that cash is up but FKLI is selling down.

11:01 am - FKLI hits high at 917

Trail stop higher to 910.5 pts.

The 917 bar is long doji and it hit daily pivot resistance at 917.75.

So I reckon it cannot go up further and sell.

3:34 pm - FKLI today creates a new record outlier for average daily range

Year 2005 average daily range was 19.0 pts. I think this was also during CNY 2005.

Today daily range is 19.5 pts. (915-895.5)

Trail stop higher to 908/908.5 pts.

3:22 pm - FKLI hits another new high at 914

Trail stop to 907/907.5 pt.

3:19 pm - FKLI hits 913.5 new high

It is interesting to see FKLI and cash run up so fast due to foreign fund coming in to buy. As of now, cash vol. is 526 mil.

I have not seen this kind of vol for a long time.

Trail stop to 906.5/907 pt.

2:57 pm - FKLI There were a lot of short covering early in the morning.

The EOD short position trader and inst. covered their position by going long and hence pushing FKLI higher into premium terrority.

2:54 pm - FKLI hits new high at 911.5

Trail stop higher to 905.0 pts.

1:43 pm - FKLI cracks 900 resistance and cash cracks 902 resistance

CNY rally is on and it started as predicted. It may not last long. Protect your profits (MONEY on the table).

FKLI went from disc -1 pts to premium +6.0 just in few minutes. FKLI is bullish now. I have not seen it gone to premium for a long time.

Interesting note was FKLI is the leading indicator. It breaks 900 at 9.15 am and Cash break 902 at 10.10 am.

Trail stop up to 904 pts. Trade #12 is in the money.

5:07 pm - Possible of cash breaking 902 for the 3rd time

This is a powerful indicator that CNY rally is back for Jan 2006.

4:54 pm - FKLI breaks R1 at 893

FKLI has the habit of breaking 893 1st and then retrace back. This is due to stop being triggered by stops of short position.

It wud fall back and the 2nd time it break 893 - this is a confirmation that it wud go higher.

4:48 pm - cash discount is almost nil. Cash need to gain more ..

Cash disccount now stds at 1.0. This is very bullish mkt if there's a CNY rally.

Trail stop up to 890.5/891. I am almost in the money today.

11:08 am - Trade #12 is long at 891

Long is in !

4:07 pm - Looking to go long at 889

This wud be a good spot to go long provided setup and buy signal comes together.

3:44 pm - FKLI trading below 50MA - 887.5

It is short time now. We missed the last MACD cross down, so now we wait for cross up to go long. If there is a CNY rally, it has to start this week.

Look for the setup and buy signal for long.

9:54 pm - Year 2005 closes with a huge selldown at the end.

The FKLI closes with -5 pts lose as the window dressing comes to an end.

Fella who went long with no stop probably lose out today.

11:50 am - Trade #11 stop out at 901.5

Profit +7.5 pts.

10:25 am - Trade #11 is long at 894

Stop loss at 901.0. In the morning

2:43 pm - Trade #9 is stopped out at 891

Profit gain +4 pts.

It is coming to end of the closing mth and MACD tend not to do so well. So it is better to stay out.

10:28 am - FKLI hit high at 895

Trail stop to 891/890.5

4:43 pm - Trail stop to 888

Trade #9 is trailed higher to 888.

3:20 pm - FKLi is heading higher

If FKLI cannot breach 891.5, that it. You wud see MACD to cross down. This is a typical FKLI pattern.

It wud head high for the 1st time and the 2nd time it wud test it. If it cannot break higher that the last high. FKLI wud go lower.

12:14 pm - FKLI is not going any further.

Trade #9 stop is trailed higher to 887.5/888.0

2:51 pm - Trade #9 is triggered long at 887

Trade #9 is triggered long. Stop loss at 883.5

10:29 am - FKLI stopped out at 885.5

Profit +3 pts.

Ready for Trade #9

10:06 am - FKLI abt to cross up

Trail stop lower to 886/885.5. Be ready for Trade #9 to go long.

9:19 am - FKLI Trail stop higher

Trail trade #8 higher to 889.5

11:13 am - Trade #8 is shorted at 888.5

Stop loss at 892.0

10:24 am - Preparing for Trade #8 for short if below 50MA

Look for Trade #8 to go short if below 50 MA. i.e. below 888.5

10:21 am - FKLI trade #7 stoppped out at 891.5

Profit at 2.5 pts.

10:03 am - FKLi looks like going nowhere

Trail stop higher to 891.5/892. I have been in for 14 bars and haven't move any where but sideway

2:03 pm - FKLI hit high 896

Trail stop to 891.0

4:01 pm - FKLI really breakout today

Trail stop higher to 889.

12:49 pm - FKLi MACD had cross up

Trade #7 is long at 889. Stop loss at 885

10:33 am - FKLI had overhead problem

Every time FKLI move ahead uptrend and wud selldown due to insufficient vol on cash mkt. It is the fluctuation of discount and premium that making FKLI to move up and down.

9:43 am - FKLI is going noway.

Wait to go long if break 891 today. It will be its third attempt.

9:42 am - Trade #6 is stopped out at 885

Trade #6 end with a 2.5 pts loss.

3:56 pm - Trade #6 looks to stop out soon.

Looking at the MACD, it did not cross at all. This is a mistake. Take a loss at 885.

Loss -2.5 pts.

3:12 pm - FKLi going nowhere for the time being.

It looks like it is going sideway. trail stop to 884.5.

11:19 am - Trade #6 long position is triggered.

Long position triggered at 888.5 and hit high of 889.
Stop loss at 884/884.5

10:56 am - Trade #6 is ready to go long 888.5 pts

Stop loss at 882.5 pts.

10:22 am - Trade #6 is ready for long at 888.5/889.

Waiting for MACD to cross up. 7 line change bar has set up nicely.

10:19 am - Trade #5 is triggered at 888

Loss of -2.5 pts.

Looking to go long at after MACD cross.

3:54 pm - FKLI hit lower at 883

Trail stop to 877.5

11:22 am - Trade #5 is shorted at 855.5

Trade #5 is initiated. Stop loss at 889.

11:13 am - Trade #5 is ready for short

Short at 885/885.5 as MACD above to cross down and 7 bar line change is violated. Daily pivot broken at 887.5.

Predicted low today = 884.0 pts.

10:27 am - FKLI is not going anyway but down.

FKLI hit high of 892 yesterday. Trail stop to 887.

Watch out, MACD about to cross down.

3:39 pm - Trail Trade #4 to 885.5

FKLI hit high of 891. Trail stops higher.

11:19 am - FKLI hit high at 889.5

It shud hit high of 890.5. Trail stop to 884.

10:16 am - FKLI is reversing from down to up.

The cash vol is 62 mil at 10 am. Projecting today cash vol closing 341 mil. So there are some institution buying today.

If it cannot break 888.5, it can be a resistance.

9:29 am - FKLI heading north today.

The last minute uptrend yesterday continue this morning. It is critical FKLI can closed above 884.5.

Daily Pivot
R2 = 888.5
R1 = 884.5
P = 880.0
S1 = 876

Trail stop to 882.5/882.0 pts.

5:17 pm - Trade #4 long position is triggered

Long position is triggered at 881.5 pts.

Stop loss = 877/877.5

Tomorrow pivot point.
R1 = 884.5
P = 880.0
S1 = 876.0

3:58 pm - FKLI is moving sideway

FKLI hit a low at 874.5 and high at 879.5

MACD almost cross down. So no position is taken yet.

Trade #4 is ready for either long or short.

5:05 pm - FKLI Trade #3 is stopped at 877.0

Trade #3 loss of 0.5 pts.

Await for Trade #4 for setup and signal to go short.

4:15 pm - FKLi going sideway

FKLi has heading downside or sideway.

10:33 am - FKLI rebounded to high 882.0

FKLi rebounded back, so trail my stop to 875.5.

10:33 am - Trade

10:30 am - Update for last Friday trade

Trade #2 was stopped out at 876.5 when FKLI hit low 870.5 and rebounded. Profit win +2 pts.

Trade #3 was initiated on Friday when MACD cross at 877.5. Stop loss at 872.

3:44 pm - FKLI selldown further

Trail stop to 876

2:04 pm - FKLI average daily range has reached

We have reached 6.5 pts i.e. average daily range. The mkt shud rebound back or selldown further (unlikely).

Trail stop to 879/879.5

12:32 pm - FKLI Dec selldown further to 875.5

Wow ! The proton selldown is really driving the bearish market.

12:15 noon - FKLI trade #2 short triggered at 878.5

Trade #2 is triggered at 878.5. Stop loss at 881.5

11:33 am - Get ready for long at 883/883.5

For FKLI Dec, I am interested if FKLI comes to this level.

9:37 am - Trade #1 is stopped out at 880.5

Loss of -2 pts. The FKLI mkt seem not to go down trend. Cash mkt support at 894/895.

4:43 pm - Trade #1 triggered short at 878.5

1st trade of FKLI Dec contract triggered at 878.5. Stop loss at 881./881.5 pts.

10:06 am - Tune to FKLI Dec contract

Currently, FKLI Dec is trading at 15 pts discount. The discount is too wide and is bound to close back. However, cash mkt is going downtrend. Watch the 62% retractment of cash mkt. Generally, if cash does not selldown any more i.e. -0.5 pts, the discount will narrow to 8 or 9 pts.

Watch for the setup and long signal.

12:08 noon - FKLI on the last 3 days to closing

FKLI is trading to 4 pt discount and I think it is par level. Over the last few mths, FKLI shud be trading around 4-5 discount prior to closing due to convergence.

To go outright is not profitable as you do not know how the institution would rollover their contract. Charts do not work so well as these bearish market.

Wait for position setup for Dec contract on Wed or Thur - Dec 1 or 2.

Rgds,
-martin-

3:41 pm - FKLI selldown to 893.0

Always obey your rule and you will be rewarded.

The last 20th trade results are out

I would post the results on the result weblog.

10:33 am - Trade #20 is out with a loss

Loss of -2 pts.

10:26 am - Trade #20 is stopped out at 893.5

Stop out at 893.5. I know if I cud hold on, I can win the trade. But that wud be violating the discipline.

3:58 pm - Trade #20 is triggered at 895.5

Trade #20 is long with stop loss at 890/890.5

12:34 noon - Trade #20 is ready to go long

However, I am waiting for MACD to cross up.

11:58 am - FKLI trade #19 stop triggered at 894.5

Profit at +1.5 pts

11:09 am - FKLI Trade #19 is doing just fine.

Trail stop to 894.5