***** Next Master the Markets Foundation Course 1.5 days - Sept 14-15, 2009. Call Dolly at 03 4252 4149 to enroll ! ***** The Importance of Being A "Honest" Trader :-) martin_tf_wong@hotmail.com: 07/01/2009 - 08/01/2009

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

9:31 am - FKLI is well supported at 1175.




Mkt push higher as regional markets recovered !

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

4:19 pm - FKLI has broken up !


It is ready to test higher !

9:30 am - FKLI begin to test for the old high !




Watch out for the breakout today !

Monday, July 27, 2009

3:47 pm - FKLI has gone sideway !


10:31 am - Market Report by Bill Wermine

Dear Traders,

While in Singapore for a business trip last month, I picked up a book Investing Against the Tide by Anthony Bolton, Bolton was head of Fidelity Asset Mgt in London before recently retiring. He is a humble low key individual who does not like public exposure and his book is his parting gift.

His performance for the fund he managed averaged over 20 % per year over 19 years which rivals Warren Buffet. His performance was steady and consistent with a maximum volatility of 18 % meaning his worse
loss was 18 %

He also used technical analysis to filter his fundamental picks. He said he was only right 60 % of the time and remember he had access to the best research, technology and business contacts. He also always established an exit plan on all his investments both for profit or loss.

What is interesting is a statement he made related trading to golf. In golf there is a term called Mulligan. Mulligan means you get a second chance after making a bad shot. In the stockmarket there are plenty of mulligans. Rarely do you only get one chance. If you miss the chance for a good entry it is likely you will get another chance. In otherwords it is a bad idea to chase a trade. Just be patient.

Presently the KLSE is extreemly overbought. The crowd is super bullish. All the news from CNBC, Bloomberg, The Star, The Edge etc. is bullish. The world wide recession is over proclaims most stock broker houses. In fact my seminar indicator tells me a different story. We have a full house for our Master the Markets Foundation Course Monday. This was without advertising or holding previews. In fact we have to turn people away because the room is full.

We are getting calls from previous preview attendees as far away as Penang/ Sabah and Johor, who have finally committed to attending after months of soul searching and worrying about paying our very reasonable seminar fee.-

My seminar indicator means we are close to the top. When we only get 5 or 6 attendees we are close to the bottom.

My advice is focus on high quality dividend payers and buy tests of recent supports on any bad news and carefully define an exit plan.

There is more risk on the downside than reward on the upside so you need to carefully manage your trades.

For our Wrap account holders, our AUD currency Man investments are earning good currency gains while the fund has had some losses. Should trends emerge the Man Fund should do well both from the AUD side and the fund performance.

The AUD/ RM rate appears ready to break the RM 3.00 level on course to RM 3.26. I also like the EWA, the Australian Sock market ETF as the Australian market has a lot of swing freedom for another 16 % rise but: Remember to wait for your Mulligan.


Have a profitable week ahead,
Bill

10 am - FKLI gap up and begin to selldown !


The market is weak today !

Monday, July 20, 2009

4:58 pm - FKLI has finally broke thru but ease back now to 1143/1144 !


3:23 pm - FKLI tested higher !


10:20 am - Market Report II by Bill Wermine

Dear Traders,

Saturday, I had the pleasure of attending the mid year market outlook by Jupiter Securities held at the Sime Darby convention center.

Pong Teng Siew, head of research gave an objective, common sense KLSE market outlook. He targets 1180- 1200 for the KLSE by end of August seems achievable as funds go out of US Dollar assets and into Asian equities. Foreign funds are currently accumulating quality blue chips and index heavyweights.

He feels Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia are in the beginning stage of a grinding recovery. Non performing loans in Malaysia as reported by Bank Negara are at 2.2 % while in the US are at 6.5 %. Malaysia has almost a zero exposure to sub prime mortages and derivatives and credit is available to worthy borrowers. This is also business positive and supportive for the KLSE

The Asian economies are on much sounder footing as compared to Europe, UK and USA and should recover faster from the world wide recession. Savings rates are also high and that provides a cushion.

He favors consumer goods companies such as Pet Dag- the petrol station operator that pay generous dividend- currently 5.3 % for Pet Dag. In my opinion Pet Dag is the best run petrol station business in Malaysia. I like the business cluster model that includes a Mac Donald, 7-11, Bank ATM machines, and high margin cash businesses that surround each Petronas.

These contribute to their bottom line. Sales and earnings continue to increase and they are due to raise their dividend again.

Why would anyone in their right mind hold an FD paying only 2 % interest with absolutely no chance for capital growth with companies such as Pet Dag are on offer at only a PE of 11.

Disclosure: (Am holding Pet Dag for myself and all managed and EPF accounts)


Here is a reply from my adviser Dr Dorn in reply to my flash alert to liquidate all holdings of the US ETF GLD: Here advice is not as blunt as mine but the message is the same.


Hi Bill,
These rumors about GLD have been circulating for some time. No one knows the truth except whoever is in charge at the ETF. Since they won’t tell us, they likely have something to hide. In these cases of uncertainty and lack of transparency it is always the better part of valor to err on the side of caution.
Regards
Dr Dorn www.thetradingdoctor.com

Martin and I are holding our Master the Markets foundation course next Monday and Tuesday 27 28 July- start at 10 AM- my office at Phillip Capital.
We have 8 sign ups and room for about 7 more. Any graduates are FOC to resit - notes if you do not have are RM 50. if you have any friend who wishes to attend we offer the rate of RM 588- pay at the door. (This is a generous discount from the published in rate of RM 788)

As seats are limited please inform Dolly 03 4252 4149 - if you or friend wishes to attend . On the 2nd day Martin will review his blog recommendations, Metastock filtering and CPO/CI futures backtest results.

Have a prosperous week ahead
Bill

10:17 am - Market Report by Bill Wermine

Dear Traders,

Excuse me from being paranoid- but it is better to a bit mentally unbalanced than lose money.

Those who bought GLD ETF on my recommendation, time to sell and move on. I don't care if you have a profit or a loss


Please read this insightful article below. GLD ATF Fund could blow up in your face like Bernie Madoff.

They may not have the physical gold to back up their positions and because of the way JP Morgan/HSBC structured the fund they are able to avoid the SC and CFTC regulations and compliance. They will not even allow an audit of their gold holdings - I ask what are they trying to hide ?

In Contrast:

GDX or Am Precious metals are made up of legitimate gold mining companies that produce real gold/ real sales and real earnings that can be audited unlike GLD. As these are listed companies they are subject to SC audit.


This is just another example of how the mom and pop sheep investor gets the shaft by the vested interests. I think Obama would be happy to let this happen. He would shed crocodile tears as gold is not the friend of the politicians who debase our currency.

It may not happen for a few months or years but I see problems here and better sell before a rush to the exits. If we are offered a VSA short selling opportunity it could give us windfall profits

GDX or Am Precious Metals is OK because that consists of mining companies and come under SC regulations and offer investor protection unlike GLD.

My investing philosophy is examine the facts and act accordingly at any hint of danger. I would rather have a wrong opinion or be accused of being paranoid than lose money.

I have no trust in big American, UK and European institutions and investment banks who maintain a front of respectability but in the back room are nothing more than gangsters running a high pressure boiler room operation designed to cheat and swindle the innocent under the protection of the regulators and powerful politicians who arrogantly thumb their noses at the electorate.

Take heed
Bill

9:35 am - FKLI is testing higher and a sign it can go higher !


Friday, July 17, 2009

4:44 pm - FKLI did break higher as regional market is very bullish too.


4:42 pm - My next Master the Markets Foundation Course - July 27-28, 2009


Trading hot KLSE shares can put you on the Financial Freedom Road.


Learn how to grow your capital at Bill's and Martin's famous Master the Markets Foundation Course.
We cover on line trading, reading the price and volume screen, risk management and trading simulation as well as CPO and CI Futures.


Small class size, real time environment.


Next intake 27 28 July. Regular price RM 788 but for readers of my blog only RM 588 for 1 1/2 day program.


Registration details on our brochure.
Contact Dolly 016 637 1508 / 03 4252 4149 or email seminars@tradethetruth.com for enrollment.

3:24 pm - FKLI breaking higher as short sellers covered their shorts !


I was stopped out too selling short before lunch.

11:36 am - DJIA is ready to test 8800 resistance level tonite !


11:27 am - FKLI is likely to test yesterday high again !


Wednesday, July 15, 2009

11:27 am - FKLI is likely to close higher today !


Waiting to take the second lot profit at higher !

10:40 am - Trading seminar next week - July 27-28 2009


Trading hot KLSE shares can put you on the Financial Freedom Road.

Learn how to grow your capital at Bill's and Martins famous Master the Markets Foundation Course.
We cover on line trading, reading the price and volume screen, risk management and trading simulation as well as CPO and CI Futures.

Small class size, real time environment.

Next intake 27 28 July. Regular price RM 788 but for readers of my blog only RM 588 for 1 1/2 day program. Registration details on our brochure

9:58 am - Taken profit on the long position at these level !


9:23 am - FKLI has hits triple resistance at 1085 level.


It need some time to consolidate first before breaking higher.

Look to accumulate if FKLI dip lower but not closing below 1063.5

Monday, July 13, 2009

5:10 pm - FKLI has formed a double bottom at 1053/1054 today !


4:22 pm - Little chance for DJIA to fall and break below 8,000 level.


11:02 am - FCPO Market Statistics

FCPO Market Demography for June 2009
Category May09 Jun09 Change
-------- ----- ----- -------
Foreign institution 16% 18% +12.50%
Domestic institution 17% 17% unch
Foreign retail 1% 0% -100.0%
Domestic retail 25% 26% + 4.00%
Locals 41% 39% - 4.88%
Proprietary 0% 0% unch
----------------------------------------------------
(# of contracts)
Total Volume 400,822 328,826 -17.96%
Average daily volume 20,041 14,947 -25.42%
Month end open interest 79,041 63,973 -19.06%

10:54 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine

Dear Traders,

Last week, I shared some research on Dopamine by Dr Dorn, a psychaitrist and trader from Arizona. www.thetradingdoctor.com.

Dopamine is the chemical that is released in our brain when our greed is stimulated

Dopamine is a powerful drug perhaps like cocaine and we need to be awaire of its dangers and affects that can cause us to lose our reason and lose our money in the markets. It can cause us to buy the high because of greed.

This week will share Dr Dorn's research on Serotonin, the fear chemical. Our brain releases this chemical when we experience fear- it is so powerful that it can cause us to panic and sell at the low. If we have a period of losses it can cause us to withdraw from the market into a shell and we miss good trades because we are afraid to pull the trigger.

I am not a medical professional but I know this is true because I have suffered the effects of these powerful chemicals. Through long and costly experience, I have found ways to overcome the problems of dopamine and serotonin and I share with you that having a trading plan and a mechanical system with fixed backtested rules are 2 ways. Maintaining your good health by diet, exercise and taking frequent holidays is another.

Below is Dr Dorns answer to me and her research. If you have any psychological issues you should subscibe to her service.
as trading in my opinion is 90 % psychology. Her website is below. If you wish me to send you the attachments supporting her research please let me know.

Serotonin is a chemical whose levels in the brain are decreased in the presence of depression. Studies have shown low levels of serotonin in people who are suicidal or who have committed suicide. In other words, in the presence of low serotonin, people tend to retreat. They become either depressed or anxious or both. Small stimuli are magnified and there is a general sense that something is not right and that an otherwise-innocuous stimulus is something to be feared.
VERY very simply—the way that serotonin decreases in the brain is this: Ordinarily serotonin is released at nerve endings in parts of the rat brain and also in other parts of the brain. Brain cells communicate electrochemically. The first attachment shows a two nerve cells—a sender and a receiver. The serotonin is relapsed into the space between the nerve cells. This space is called a synapse as shown in the second attachment. There are as many synapses in the brain as stars in the known universe, so showing just one is pretty simple—but you get the point!)

In a normally-functioning brain, t serotonin released into the synapse by the sending neuron, taken up by the receiving adjacent nerve cell and the transmission continues. This serotonin transmission from sender to receiver ensures a high degree of “normal” mood control.


When something happens ( say loss of money, death of a loved one or something related to loss), the serotonin from the sender sell does NOT get taken up into the receiver cell. Instead, it get taken up by the sender cell! In other words, there is serotonin “reuptake” by the sender cell and the receiver cell never gets the message. Smooth transmission along serotonin nerve cells stops. Depression, sadness, anxiety and fear results from this. It is a failure of what is called “serotonin reuptake.” Many medications prescribed for depression ( Prozac, Paxil, other anti-depressants) are called SSRIs. This means that they are :Selective Serotonin Reuptake Blockers. In other words, they prevent the REUPTAKE of serotonin by the sender cell, and allow the serotonin to get into the synapse, be taken up by the receiver cell and the smooth transmission to proceed.

Also, it is good to know that the majority of both dopamine and serotonin transmitting neural nets are in the primitive rat brain and its connections. Additionally, we believe there are more than 300 brain chemicals ( so-called neurotransmitters) so serotonin and dopamine, although the best studied so far, may be just the tip of the iceberg re: mood control by our most powerful trading tool—the human brain!

So- in the presence of fear, anxiety or depression, serotonin transmission essentially crashes. To make matters worse, it is believed that the dopamine transmission also crashes—a double whammy as it were!IF you would like me to expand on this further, or to write something special for your group, please let me know, Bill?Otherwise, please feel free to use this with a mention of me and my site: www.thetradingdoctor.com.

The KLSE has been resilient in the face of a 10 % drop in the Dow and the onslaught of bad news, pessimism and currency volatility. What is Malaysia doing right that the US is not doing ? Obviously, large funds such as Aberdeen Asset Mgt and Fidelity who are slowly moving into the KLSE must know something that the crowd of pessimists and doom sayers do not know.
Continue to focus on only the highest quality blue chip dividend shares and carefully manage your risks on these positions.

We recently took profit on all our F & N positions and I plan to reestablish should supports be tested. I like their dividendand that stimulates my Dopamine. By the way it is OK to be greedy but manage your positions.

Avoid all speculative shares that have risen quickly in the last 2 months. I know the media has been hyping many lower quality shares lately as smart money is offloading their low quality inventory to the sheep. Remember the media is the tool of the smart money. In the US it is CNBC and CNN. - Jim Cramer is like the hungry wolf who leads the crowd of retail sheep traders to the slaughter house.
Have a prosporous week,
Bill

10:53 am - FKLI market demo - June 09

FKLI Market Demography for June 2009
Category May09 Jun09 Change
-------- ----- ----- -------
Foreign institution 21% 23% + 9.52%
Domestic institution 2% 3% +50.00%
Foreign retail 0% 0% unch
Domestic retail 51% 54% + 5.88%
Locals 26% 20% -23.08%
Proprietary 0% 0% unch
----------------------------------------------------
(# of contracts)
Total Volume 225,927 190,223 -15.80%
Average daily volume 11,296 8,647 -23.45%
Month end open interest 17,865 17,187 - 3.80%

Please refer to the attachment for historical graphs.
Regards, CIMB Futures

10:47 am - FKLI is testing support at 1054/1056 level


it is holding up !

Friday, July 10, 2009

4 pm - FKLI wants to go higher !


9:36 am - FKLI wud test 1066/1068 for the second time today !


If it failed, it wud likely to crash down or congested sideway !