Friday, August 28, 2009
9:31 am - FKLI not that strong to push higher !
Let's wait until after lunch. It is also rollover today !
Thursday, August 27, 2009
9:43 am - As the FKLI market is moving sideway...
Let's look at the longer time frame 4 hrs. Resistance between 1185 and 1150.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Monday, August 24, 2009
11:38 am - Market Report by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
Despite the recent 20 % correction on the Shanghai Index, the index Friday found support at the June 09 pivot high.
Despite the recent 20 % correction on the Shanghai Index, the index Friday found support at the June 09 pivot high.
It appears the Politburo wants to knock the speculators out but not engineer a bearish trend. They may instruct their 200 billion soverign wealth fund to buy bank stocks.
China's liquidity problem is an overabundance of liquidity, not a squeeze.
You may buy FXI on a pullback to 36 on climactic panic selling/test of supply with a risk to 33.75 and a target of 46.
Most of the bears and pessimists are frustrated so they need to get a magic marker and etch the word LIQUIDITY on their foreheads to be constantly reminded what drives the world markets currently.
When waves of selling engulf the market and drive stock markets lower the selling suddenly dries up and market prices begin to rebound again with no apparent news. The answer is liquidity.
This applies to the KLSE as well. I know many of you are pessimistic and are looking for reasons to sell- but liquidity overrides the uncertain fundamentals. Unless we see wide range up bars on huge volume (Hidden Potential Selling) as insiders use this to offload- better you should stay the course. Keep your quality shares. Maintain risk levels.
Fed chief Bernanke told central bankers gathered in Wyomings Grand Teton Mountains to be careful about withdrawing liquidity from the market too soon.
Have a profitable
Saturday, August 22, 2009
10:25 am - DJIA has broken new high with vol !
We may have a new bull in the making ! No sign of weakness yet for DJIA.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
9:29 am - FKLI looks set to move sideway !
It wud test for buyers at the resistance 1161 level and sellers at 1155.0
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Monday, August 17, 2009
10:18 am - Market Report by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
Bob Farrell was chief market strategest for Merrill Lynch from 1967- 1992. He had 10 rules for investing. Rules 4 and 5 apply today with most world markets and to a lesser extent the KLSE.
4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways
This is Farrell's way of saying that a popular sector can stay hot for a long while, but will fall hard when a correction comes. Chinese stocks have had a 100 % rally and last week a 12 % drop. The investors who came late to this party have been sorry.
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
Those KLSE shares that have had the biggest runs will have the biggest falls.
Suggest moving your risks up to protect profits on all your shares and be ready to buy back once should you get taken out once
the correction runs its course. Be happy with a profit but do not expect to get the top.
A big drop in the China markets could trigger the correction.
Mark Mobius, chairman of Templeton asset mgt warned of a 30 % correction in Asian stocks as companies take advantage of the rally to sell more shares. Perhaps that is why Maxis is being relisted ? Sell at the high. That is what a good businessman does.
The AUD looks well supported as Bank of Australia is signaling higher interest rates to hold back inflation. 3 Month
T Bill futures in Australia tumbled to the 96, to yield 4 % far above the RBA 3 % target rate.
The IMF on the eve of the 2 year anaversary of the banking crises calculated that the cost of rescuing the system is close to 12 trillion USD- 10.2 trillion is from the US, Europe and the UK. Only 1.8 trillion is from the rest of the world including India, Asian countries.
That is why the IMF said Asia may decouple from the Western countries and lead the recovery.
In any case wait for a good drop in the market before venturing.
Have a good week
Bill
Bob Farrell was chief market strategest for Merrill Lynch from 1967- 1992. He had 10 rules for investing. Rules 4 and 5 apply today with most world markets and to a lesser extent the KLSE.
4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways
This is Farrell's way of saying that a popular sector can stay hot for a long while, but will fall hard when a correction comes. Chinese stocks have had a 100 % rally and last week a 12 % drop. The investors who came late to this party have been sorry.
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
Those KLSE shares that have had the biggest runs will have the biggest falls.
Suggest moving your risks up to protect profits on all your shares and be ready to buy back once should you get taken out once
the correction runs its course. Be happy with a profit but do not expect to get the top.
A big drop in the China markets could trigger the correction.
Mark Mobius, chairman of Templeton asset mgt warned of a 30 % correction in Asian stocks as companies take advantage of the rally to sell more shares. Perhaps that is why Maxis is being relisted ? Sell at the high. That is what a good businessman does.
The AUD looks well supported as Bank of Australia is signaling higher interest rates to hold back inflation. 3 Month
T Bill futures in Australia tumbled to the 96, to yield 4 % far above the RBA 3 % target rate.
The IMF on the eve of the 2 year anaversary of the banking crises calculated that the cost of rescuing the system is close to 12 trillion USD- 10.2 trillion is from the US, Europe and the UK. Only 1.8 trillion is from the rest of the world including India, Asian countries.
That is why the IMF said Asia may decouple from the Western countries and lead the recovery.
In any case wait for a good drop in the market before venturing.
Have a good week
Bill
Friday, August 14, 2009
Thursday, August 13, 2009
9:16 am - KLCi is holding its down slide for today !
Let sell if the trend wud reverse back to up after lunch !
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
3:26 pm - FKLI breaking down as regionals are selling fast !
Got out and cut some of our long positions !
(No charts available)
(No charts available)
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
5:43 pm - Expect some selling tomorrow for FKLI
FKLI did selldown at the end. DJIA futures down -3 pts.
(sorry no charts as I have problem posting them).
(sorry no charts as I have problem posting them).
10:14 am - Market Report by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
We held our traders club meeting at CIMB auditorium today. Nigel Foo gave his outlook and it was bearish for everything. He showed an Elliot Wave chart with the Dow/ KLSE in an extended wave 2, known as the sucker wave.
He said it will suck in the majority of players who are 88 % bullish acording to the sentiment indicator he follows. This was the same sentiment level at the 2007 top. Once the rally wanes the Dow is on course to 5000 and the KLSE to 600.
How do we protect ourselves in this scenario? Watch for no demand price bars, upthrusts and hidden potential selling confimed by volume/price spreads. In this way we protect our accumulated profits on our quality shares by exiting at the time professionals/ smart money are moving to the exits.
We played 4 video clips from the documentary Broke in America by hedge fund manager Michael Covel as he explained how the government controlled media in the US cheerleads for the vested interests such as Goldman Sachs, Obama and his band of socialists. We showed a clip of CNBC front man Jim Cramer whose job is to lead the sheep investors to slaughter by recommending hot tips to make fast money as his insider friends offload. He is nothing more than a pimp for the prostitutes he serves.
Insider sales as reported to the exchanges is at the highest level since the market top in 2007. Insiders include CEOs, institutions, hedge funds, professional investors that trade size. They are the smart money and you have to ask why are they selling when all the news is bullish ?
As a trader I try not to have opinions or make forecasts but my mind is open to views from those I respect. I then use my charts facts and logic to confirm what they say. This will lead to opportunity be it on the long side or the short side.
Based on the US Government's easy money policy- Bernenke has pumped 1.75 trillion dollars into the big US banks while slashing interest rates to 0.25 % to counter the worst banking crises since the Great Depression. The Fed's ultra easy money policy may have sown the seeds for an outburst of inflation when economic activity picks up.
The CRB Index supports this view. The CRB is a basket of all the major world commodities- grains, precious and base metals, as well as soft commodities.
As investors and the public lose confidence in currencies they accumulate commodities- witness the Chinese who are accumulating virtually all commodities as they reduce their holdings of US Bonds.
CRB Monthly chart shows a rounding bottom over the last 9 months as professionals accumulate commodities anticipating a return of inflation. There is more room to go up than to go down. The CRB supports the inflation scenario.
We held our traders club meeting at CIMB auditorium today. Nigel Foo gave his outlook and it was bearish for everything. He showed an Elliot Wave chart with the Dow/ KLSE in an extended wave 2, known as the sucker wave.
He said it will suck in the majority of players who are 88 % bullish acording to the sentiment indicator he follows. This was the same sentiment level at the 2007 top. Once the rally wanes the Dow is on course to 5000 and the KLSE to 600.
How do we protect ourselves in this scenario? Watch for no demand price bars, upthrusts and hidden potential selling confimed by volume/price spreads. In this way we protect our accumulated profits on our quality shares by exiting at the time professionals/ smart money are moving to the exits.
We played 4 video clips from the documentary Broke in America by hedge fund manager Michael Covel as he explained how the government controlled media in the US cheerleads for the vested interests such as Goldman Sachs, Obama and his band of socialists. We showed a clip of CNBC front man Jim Cramer whose job is to lead the sheep investors to slaughter by recommending hot tips to make fast money as his insider friends offload. He is nothing more than a pimp for the prostitutes he serves.
Insider sales as reported to the exchanges is at the highest level since the market top in 2007. Insiders include CEOs, institutions, hedge funds, professional investors that trade size. They are the smart money and you have to ask why are they selling when all the news is bullish ?
As a trader I try not to have opinions or make forecasts but my mind is open to views from those I respect. I then use my charts facts and logic to confirm what they say. This will lead to opportunity be it on the long side or the short side.
Based on the US Government's easy money policy- Bernenke has pumped 1.75 trillion dollars into the big US banks while slashing interest rates to 0.25 % to counter the worst banking crises since the Great Depression. The Fed's ultra easy money policy may have sown the seeds for an outburst of inflation when economic activity picks up.
The CRB Index supports this view. The CRB is a basket of all the major world commodities- grains, precious and base metals, as well as soft commodities.
As investors and the public lose confidence in currencies they accumulate commodities- witness the Chinese who are accumulating virtually all commodities as they reduce their holdings of US Bonds.
CRB Monthly chart shows a rounding bottom over the last 9 months as professionals accumulate commodities anticipating a return of inflation. There is more room to go up than to go down. The CRB supports the inflation scenario.
We also plan to post Nigels presentation on Martin's blog as we move toward servicing you via the internet. Many of you live in Penang, Kuching, Johor, Singapore and even Indonesia and it is not practical for you to participate in our gatherings. We plan to extend our research coverage as hiring hotels for presentations, travelling outside KL and advertising in the newsmedia has become prohibitively expensive.
Let us have your feedback on this. Martin and are planning to attend a workshop on creating blogs/ setting up an e coaching service next month by a prominent Indian blogger.
Here's a quote from a floor trader of S & P futures- Larry Levin
"And oh, by the way, don't expect any stock market weakness while so many billions are being shoveled out the Fed and into the pockets of the primary dealers. They'll have to do something with all that freshly minted cash....."I think it's clear folks; there is no "free market" and what is left of the stock and bond markets have become a pyramid scheme that makes Bernie Madoff look like a piker. Trade well and follow the trend.
Have a profitable week ahead
Bill
Let us have your feedback on this. Martin and are planning to attend a workshop on creating blogs/ setting up an e coaching service next month by a prominent Indian blogger.
Here's a quote from a floor trader of S & P futures- Larry Levin
"And oh, by the way, don't expect any stock market weakness while so many billions are being shoveled out the Fed and into the pockets of the primary dealers. They'll have to do something with all that freshly minted cash....."I think it's clear folks; there is no "free market" and what is left of the stock and bond markets have become a pyramid scheme that makes Bernie Madoff look like a piker. Trade well and follow the trend.
Have a profitable week ahead
Bill
Saturday, August 08, 2009
Friday, August 07, 2009
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
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