***** Next Master the Markets Foundation Course 1.5 days - Sept 14-15, 2009. Call Dolly at 03 4252 4149 to enroll ! ***** The Importance of Being A "Honest" Trader :-) martin_tf_wong@hotmail.com

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

9:28 am - Here is a current recommendation from my newsletter for LONG position - FCPO trade.


LONG at 3580 and FCPO closed 3599.0 last nite. Let's see if the trend remain bullish.


Monday, February 18, 2008

4:51 pm - A very bearish pattern - Bearish Engulfing




Think Short ! But there is No SHORT signal from TG.








4:13 pm - FKLI staging a comeback after Hang Seng closed with -380 pts down.


This is a typical fashion on how FKLI behaves around 4.00 pm - 5.15 pm.

12:50 noon - FKLI Selldown to a support at 1414-1416


9:27 am - FKLI holding up nicely just like KLCI


I believe professionals maybe accumulating. Need to wait for confirmaton.


Saturday, February 16, 2008

8:04 am - Soybeans hit record on Chinese demand

NEW YORK (AP) - Soybean futures rose to a record Friday, surpassing $14 a bushel for the first time amid expectations of rising demand in China for the grain used to feed livestock and make biofuel. Other commodities traded mixed, with crude oil futures ending about flat and gold and silver edging lower. Soybean prices have surged 9.5 percent so far this year, buoyed by dwindling stockpiles and growing demand in China, the world's largest soybean buyer. On Thursday, China's agriculture minister said that bad winter storms had severely damaged 40 percent of the country's rapeseed crop -- leading investors to bet the country will boost buying of soybeans to make up the shortfall. "Whenever a (government) minister makes a statement, the market definitely listens. ... That brought a lot more speculative money into the market on the bean side," said Jason Ward, analyst with Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis. Soybeans for May delivery soared to an all-time high of $14.045 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade before easing back on profit-taking to settle at $13.7375 a bushel, still up 5.75 cents. Other agriculture commodities also rose. Wheat for May delivery gained 1 cent to settle at $10.42 a bushel on the CBOT, while March corn gained 3.75 cents to settle at $5.1475 a bushel. Soybeans had a phenomenal run last year and are poised for another strong performance in 2008. U.S. exporters have already sold more than three-quarters of the soybeans the Agriculture Department predicts for the whole marketing year, which ends in June. Although current supplies appear ample, analysts say the market is headed into a downward trend and that farmers need to plant more soybeans than they did last year -- when an ethanol boom led farmers to favor planting corn acres over soybeans. "We're selling (soybeans) obviously at a quick pace that needs to slow down" in order to meet long-term demand, Ward said. In precious metals, gold and silver futures fell after the dollar strengthened against some major currencies. Gold for April delivery lost $4.70 to settle at $906.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. March silver lost 13.7 cents to settle at $17.118 an ounce, while March copper added 3.5 cents to settle at $3.523 a pound. Platinum, meanwhile, continued its record-setting rally amid supply concerns fed by a power shortage in South Africa that could slow mining operations for up to four years. Platinum for April delivery leaped $57.80 to settle at $2,063.70 an ounce on the Nymex. The metal later surged to an all-time high of $2,087 an ounce in aftermarket trading. In energy markets, crude oil futures closed essentially flat Friday as investors cashed in profits from recent gains and worried over data suggesting a drop in oil demand. Light, sweet crude for March delivery inched up 4 cents to settle at $95.50 on the Nymex. Oil prices have risen more than $8 in little more than a week. Other energy futures traded mixed Friday. March gasoline futures rose 1.77 cents to settle at $2.4938 a gallon on the Nymex, while March heating oil fell 1.97 cents to $2.6469 a gallon. Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may

Friday, February 15, 2008

5:48 pm - FKLI on a daily basis still moving sideway !


11:47 am - FKLI staging a mini intraday rally but selldown !



We exited our LONG position with a loss. Stop out at 1423.5






10:04 am - FKLI - Could this be a forming a Head and Shoulder Pattern


You can see the right shoulder followed by the Head and the left shoulder which yet to be formed ? Once you see and confirmed the left shoulder, the market is more likely to turn bearish ?
Looking back to the last 2004 election if history is any indicators, the market back in 2004 was moving sideway and 5 days leading to the polling date, the market moves up.

9:32 am - FKLI is supported by 50MA at 1425


Thursday, February 14, 2008

9:03 am - DJIA up +178 pts - FKLI gap up

The news is out i.e. the market will move up from now until elections. In between, there will be profit taking. Today is a crucial day is see how the KLCI market react to the polling date.


Wednesday, February 13, 2008

3:16 pm - The Market does not like the Dissolvement of Parliament and selldown !

This is a right opportunity to buy. The market cannot go down that much. They have to come and support it.

10:28 am :Four Steps to Taking Intelligent Trading Risks

Four Steps to Taking Intelligent Trading Risks
By Ari Kiev

In the month of January a lot of hedge fund managers were encountering enormous difficulties. Some complained of being in a "trading funk where nothing worked." Others "couldn't get it right" and lost confidence in their day-to-day decision-making ability. Volatility expanded rapidly during a four-week span, and no one expected the numbers to be as bad as they turned out to be. Some held on stubbornly, refusing to take their positions down, believing that things would turn around. The trades were crowded; some thought that they should have been more aggressive in hedging and should have reduced the size of their positions.
This reminded me of one trader, Everett whom I had talked to a while back, who admitted that he was in some trades that were relatively new for him and he increased his risk by adding to trades that turned out to be different ways of expressing the same bet. Unfortunately, his risk systems weren't really in place. He apparently also took his eye off the ball by getting involved in so many unfamiliar trades and assuming that the macro trades were good.
In fact, his problems had a lot to do with his method of information gathering and the stress he was experiencing as a result of his recent losses. And the lessons he learned could be seen as applying to many traders at the start of 2008. In order to get back on track, traders have to better differentiate the so-called noise from the information available to them and to become more active in the management of positions. At times of high volatility and market downturns, traders have to trade fewer strategies, reduce the size of their relative value trades, become more active in the macro sphere, and become more contrarian. They also need to achieve better risk control by getting out of positions that aren't working. They need to keep moving and not become paralyzed by the price action.
Everett is far from being the only trader with issues about information gathering. The process can be stressful, especially for nonanalytical types. Some people are naturally wired to take extreme risks with insufficient information or thoughtfulness. For these traders, the practice of digging deeper can seem mundane and trigger a variety of anxiety responses. Beyond this, their aversion to analysis and a lack of confidence in their intellectual prowess hamper them, especially at times when things aren't working.
Conversely, traders who become too absorbed with information gathering can also create added stress for themselves. They spend too much time digging in and too little time actually placing the bet. Traders who are obsessed with getting the whole picture right can increase their levels of stress when they gain too much information to adequately process it or use it, or when they postpone action in order to gain more information.
Of course, some traders may come into the process of information gathering already besieged by anxiety, and this anxiety can actually interfere with how they gather and perceive data. As a result they lack the psychological energy to think strategically and to look for original ways of examining the material they collect. For example, they may fail to seek out innovative perspectives that might give them an angle on company change. Stress-ridden traders forget to keep triangulating information -- checking with a variety of sources to prove or disprove a theory, as well as double-checking data to ensure accurate stock judgment.
Other anxious traders lack the patience to gather data points from a variety of perspectives so as to form their own conclusions or make their own decisions. Instead, they may be too quick to act on inadequate information and tend to believe in their ideas rather than developing a skeptical or agnostic view of their analyses. Moreover, they may become too attached to ideas and inclined to be unwilling to be flexible or adaptable in the face of new information and perspectives.
An almost phobic avoidance of stress may keep other traders from stretching to obtain more information or from asking difficult questions, because they are fearful of appearing foolish or wrong. Neglecting information gathering can only lead to more losses, which subsequently only lead to more stress.
Actually, the process of information gathering can be a way of helping reduce anxiety. When a trader is as prepared as he possibly can be and is trading on the basis of reliable information or research, his levels of anxiety should be less than if he were taking a shot in the dark.
To take increased risk in the marketplace requires a combination of understanding the fundamentals and having the courage to trade your convictions. Trading bigger requires more data gathering and processing so as to produce results.
Four Steps to Taking Bigger Risks
1. Create an information edge so that you are ahead of the curve.
2. Have a thesis that you can support with data.
3. Assess the sources of the data.
4. Trade on the basis of this data against others in the marketplace.
The trader who understands risk will pay attention to corporate numbers and guidance and will try to analyze the relevance of these numbers to where the company stands relative to its major competitors. He is also able to differentiate between companies and does not simply trade noise or daily movement.
The best traders focus on the company balance sheet, earnings reports, and an assessment of the growth prospects of the company. They also compare the company on a relative valuation basis to other companies in the same space. They consider the state of the economy and any significant macroeconomic variables, such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the cost of energy, and the cost of doing business, and try to assess the nature of the market at the time.
To improve your data, ask yourself: Is this a market that is trading on fundamentals, or is it trading on macroeconomic variables and market sentiment? Then try to get a handle on relevant short-term catalysts -- fresh earnings news, changes in top executives, new technology, for example -- that may influence the market's perception of the value of a stock. Once you take these steps, you can try to make a calculated bet on the impact this data will have on the price of the stock.
Master traders are likely to factor all these things against their past experience in trading the stock, and may buy or sell some of the stock to get a feel as to how the stock is trading. Here they are also interested in the price action and what that tells them about the supply and demand characteristics of the stock -- how it is trading based on an interest in buying or selling it among other investors and traders.

With all this data analysis, they then try to determine the risk/reward profile of a particular trade in terms of its upside versus the downside of the trade. To the extent that it fits within their parameters (say a 3:1 risk/reward ratio) they enter into the trade, all the time being careful to balance the trade in terms of their net long or short exposure. Oftentimes they hedge a bet by making a comparable trade in the opposite direction or by holding options, which they use to leverage their bet and protect their downside risk.


Ari Kiev, M.D. is a world-renowned psychiatrist and author. Dr. Kiev has authored more than 20 books, including the best seller Trading to Win: The Psychology of Mastering the Markets

9:33 am - FKLI gap up and resistance at 1437.0




Support seen at 1393.0




Monday, February 11, 2008

4:00 pm - Hang Seng is down -819 pts.

FKLI selldown and break 1398 support easily. Going for Short trade is on for intraday !

12:01 noon - FKLI is moving sideway.


9:08 am - FKLI gap down but has support at 1398.0

News had it that parliment will be dissolved on Feb 13, 2008. Announcement for the election will be soon.


Saturday, February 09, 2008

9:06 am - US Stocks close mixed on economic worries

NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street finished a dismal week with a mixed performance Friday as investors grappled with fears about the insurers of distressed mortgage-backed bonds and anxiety about the broader economy. The Dow Jones industrial average, which had risen in earlier trading, fell more than 60 points, while the Nasdaq composite index managed a gain. The market has been shaken in recent weeks by uncertainty surrounding bond insurers and whether they'll be able to handle huge losses in the value of mortgage-backed bonds. On Thursday, Moody's Investors Service lowered its rating on the bond insurer Security Capital Assurance Ltd. Then at midday Friday, Fitch Ratings, another credit rating agency, put a series of mortgage-backed securities insured by MBIA Inc. on negative watch. "The bond insurers are really on people's minds," said Kim Caughey, equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "This is a horribly complex issue." If the ratings agencies downgrade more bonds and bond insurers, the moves could hurt the banks that own the bonds -- and "just drive the credit markets into a downward spiral," Caughey said. "It's things happening further upstream that's making people nervous." Financial stocks fell due to heavy selling in the corporate bond and leveraged loan markets, and meanwhile, soaring commodities prices hit retailers, said Miller Tabak equity strategist Peter Boockvar. Crude oil prices jumped $3.66 to $91.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on expectations of disruptions in Nigerian exports. Retailers, which posted poor sales figures Thursday, have said that consumer spending is not only slowing because of problems in the housing market, but also because of high gasoline and food prices. According to preliminary calculations, the Dow dropped 64.87, or 0.53 percent, to 12,182.13 -- above its lows of the day, but well off its highs, too. The biggest losers among the 30 Dow companies were financial companies American Express Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Broader stock indicators also turned lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 5.62, or 0.42 percent, to 1,331.29, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 11.82, or 0.52 percent, to 2,304.85.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

8:50 am - FKLI gap down due to DJIA -370 pts slump.



This is an opportuntity to go long.

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

6:01 pm - FCPO has a very bearish closing today - Double Top at the TOP

However, the volume for today is not convincing for a bearish market for FCPO.

5:25 pm - FKLI is on course for higher closing

The 61.8% retracement is at 1445. Expect some resistance at this level.


12:24 pm - FKLI is going no way but sideway !


10:43 am - My newsletter recommends LONG position @ 3274

The market has broken thru the last high -> 3420 and trading at 3440-3446 range.



The trade is in the money +145 points.

10:34 am - FCPO gap up to the last resistance 3420

Soy oil has broken thru the last high. Let's see if FCPO can break new high.

8:50 am - FKLI gap down slightly despite DJIA -100 pts.

FKLI is reacting to bullish overnite by soy oil and crude palm oil. Soy oil has touched new high @ US56.08.


Monday, February 04, 2008

5:07 pm - FKLI broken out and closed around 1430.5


3:48 pm - FKLI broken thru 1430.0

We are long for the intraday trade.


2:48 pm - FKLI gap up after selldown to today's low 1416.0


9:59 am - FKLI looks like breaking 1424.0

If FKLI can sustain and break above 1424, this is a long position.


Thursday, January 31, 2008

5:08 pm - FKLI closed within a rande. It had to break out 1409 to convince it can go upside.


4:30 pm - Looking at the DJIA, the chart looks like an upthrust

We have to wait for tonite to confirm.


3:08 pm - Daily Pivot at 1390 is acting as a resistance.

If it can break 1390 and above, the FKLI can go higher.








11:57 am - FKLI is ranging after the news from US FOMC is neither dissappointing nor surprising !

Trade the FKLI when KLCI break out of the sideway movement at 1400 for upside and downside at 1375.


9:53 am - FKLI has a support at 1373

If this break 1373, the FKLI will go down.


Wednesday, January 30, 2008

5:55 pm - FKLI not going anyway except sideway.


4:05 pm - If KLCI close with a wide range bar, this is a bearish pattern.


3:53 pm - FKLI selldown due to Hang Seng stop out our long position.


1:02 pm - FKLI selldown !

Malaysian shares end morning slightly lower on caution about US economy

KUALA LUMPUR (Thomson Financial) - Malaysian shares were slightly lower at the end of the morning session Wednesday, erasing earlier gains as persistent concerns about the US economy led cautious investors to take profits. The market had started firmer, tracking the overnight gains on Wall Street on hopes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the end of its two-day meeting later in the day. Mining-related stocks and select blue chips gained but failed to provide enough support to the index. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index finished the session down 1.07 points or 0.1 percent at 1,387,43, off a high of 1,400.90. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia 30-large cap index lost 18.79 points or 0.2 percent to 9,098.79 while the FTSE Bursa Malaysia second board index shed 61.26 points or 0.9 percent to 6,491.56. Decliners led advancers 421 to 204, with 238 stocks unchanged and 526 counters untraded. Trading volume was 379 million shares, valued at 848 million ringgit. (1 US dollar = 3.23 ringgit)

11:04 am - FKLI Feb Contract is at its pivot point.

If Feb contract breaks its pivot at 1390/1389, FKLI will go down further.


10:27 pm - FKLI trades sideway !

However, on our shorter timeframe the FKLI is moving up. We have gone long today !


Tuesday, January 29, 2008

5:52 pm - FKLI closed slighty up 1.5 pts.


Generally, if FKLI gap up, short and vice versa.


12:49 pm - FKLI is trading between pivot point 1402.0 & 1380.0




9:48 am - FKLI gap up due to +170 pts up by DJIA.

TG indicates weakness on the intraday charts.


However, with the 50 basis pts cut in interest rate by US FOMC priced into the market, the market may hold. Unless the basis point is below 50 basis pts, the market will fall.

Monday, January 28, 2008

9:15 pm - Lower crude oil means lower palm oil prices ???

Oil continues lower below 90 usd mark on economic slowdown fears LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Oil prices continued to trade down below the 90 usd mark heading into the afternoon in London, as lower stock markets again sparked fears of an economic slowdown denting demand for crude. "Financial markets in Europe and Asia fell lower following comments by Goldman Sachs who said the Japanese economy has probably fallen into a recession already," said Nimit Khamar at Sucden. "The economic problems in the US and Japan will be a major concern for the oil market given that they are 2 of the 3 largest consumers of oil". At 12.48 pm, New York's WTI crude for March delivery was down 1.34 usd at 89.37 usd per barrel. In London, Brent crude for March delivery was down 1.04 usd at 89.86 usd per barrel. Prices have declined by over 10 pct since hitting an all time record high above 100 usd a barrel in the early days of the New Year. While weakness in stock markets has weighed on the demand outlook, it has also forced the liquidation of many long speculative positions in crude, as funds scramble to cover losses on falling equities. "According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission the speculative net long position fell by 56 pct from the week before, which is a concern for those oil bulls as hedge fund money has been a key driver to prices surging so high," said Khamar at Sucden. Oil has tracked volatile equity markets in recent weeks but some predict that the focus is soon to turn to OPEC's meeting on Friday, where the cartel is widely expected to leave production unchanged. All 27 analysts polled by Thomson Financial News expect OPEC ministers to decide against an output increase. OPEC ministers have consistently argued that oil's rally up to the 100 usd mark was fuelled more by speculators in the market rather any tightness of supply, reducing the likelihood the cartel will up production, according to Bank of Ireland analyst Paul Harris. "As the stock markets have fallen, margin calls and flight to liquidity have seen long oil positions unwound. This adds substance to the long held view by OPEC that the price appreciation has much to do with speculation rather than supply constraints. The probability is that there will be no change in production quotas." With real concerns over the state of the economic outlook still dominating moves in oil, some market watchers have started to flag the slight possibility of an OPEC production cut. "Some (OPEC ministers) are already talking about a cut, and we are sure that Venezuela and Iran will be leading the charge," said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover. "OPEC usually cuts output in March or April and global demand typically does make its low in those two months. If one throws in a risk of recession, the argument is complete". Weakness in the US dollar has seen many OPEC members become more hawkish on price, as oil revenues and currency reserves have taken a blow, analysts said. The risk to the cartel is that another spike in oil prices back towards the 100 usd mark could tip struggling economies into recession, ultimately denting demand for crude and encouraging further investment into alternative fuel sources. While prices have retreated from their record highs, they still remain at historically elevated levels. Before September of last year, prices had never closed above the 80 usd mark. d.sheppard@thomson.com ds1/ds1/jlw

9 pm - DJIA faces a resistance at 12,500




US stocks tilt lower after global selloff NEW YORK (AP) -


Wall Street looked to open lower Monday following heavy selloffs on Asian and European exchanges. The global equities selloffs were linked to concerns that there may be more massive write-downs by global banks for subprime loan losses and worries that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as much as investors would like when it ends a two-day meeting on Wednesday. These problems also weigh on U.S. investors' and should pressure stocks at Monday's openings. Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 48 points, or 0.25 percent, at 12,188. Standard & Poor's 500 futures were off 7.1 points, or 0.19 percent, at 1,322.90 and Nasdaq 100 futures down 18 points, or 0.99 percent, at 1,775.5. A series of events this week, including expected references to the economy in President Bush's final state of the union address Monday evening and the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement, are expected to influence trading. The Fed dropped rates by 0.75 percentage point last Tuesday, and another rate cut is expected this week. Hopes for a very large cut, however, have been tempered by a revelation by French bank Societe Generale last week that it sold European index futures to close a position taken by an alleged rogue trader. It is now thought that those trades may have been a substantial part of the reason that global indexes suffered massive losses one week ago when U.S. markets were closed. New data reports Monday will give clues into the state of the housing market and corporate spending levels. Sales of new homes last month are expected to decline to 625,000 from 647,000 in November, according to a poll of economists by Thomson/IFR. The Commerce Department's durable goods report for December is expected to rise by 0.5 percent, which would be up from 0.1 percent the month before, according to Thomson/IFR. Overseas markets fell Monday amid continuing economic concerns and also in response to Friday's decline on Wall Street. In Tokyo, the Nikkei stock average dropped 4 percent and in Shanghai, plunged 7.2 percent. European bourses also were largely under pressure, as London's FTSE 100 fell 2.05 percent, Frankfurt's DAX gave up 1.71 percent and Paris's CAC 40 lost 2.30 percent. In corporate news, Sears Holdings Corp. said its chief executive, Aylwin Lewis, will resign from the department store chain on Feb 2. He will be succeeded by W. Bruce Johnson, executive vice president of supply chain and operations on an interim basis. Last week, Sears said it would change its organizational structure in an effort to improve performance. Troubled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. is back in the news. Chairman and chief executive Angelo Mozilo is going to forfeit $37.5 million in pay and benefits. Mozilo was widely criticized for collecting massive pay at a time when millions of Americans may be forced into foreclosure. Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may

5:30 pm - FKLI closed and rebound higher back to 1383


The short trade for today is closed !


2:56 pm - FKLI gap down !

The FKLI has broken the support at 1373.0. We are in bear terriority.


11:54 am - If FKLI breaks 1373, this wud look like a short trade !


10:32 am - FKLI gap down due to DJIA falling last Friday !

All of our long position is out !


FKLI is holding at this level !

Friday, January 25, 2008