Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
2:30 pm - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
This report is for those who invested in Man Funds or might be considering to add to your positions.
There has been extreme volatility in world currency markets as panic stricken investors world wide have liquidated shares, commodities, property, mortgage and corporate bonds. Volatility and price drops such as these have not been seen since the world depression of 1929- 1931.
In this atmosphere of fear and uncertainty investors have stampeding into the ultimate safe haven- US Treasury bonds. 3 month US bill rates have dropped to 0.01 percent.The 10 year bond is at 2.5 % while the 30 year bond is at 3.005 %. These are 1930 depression levels for these instruments. Large funds are buying treasuries to ride out the storm. This is creating a bubble much like the internet bubble and the recent crude oil bubble.
Chart of the US 30 year bond tells the story. As price goes higher and higher volume gets lesser and lesser which is a signal that demand is dropping. There are fewer buyers at the top as smart money is selling to the herd of sheep who are caught up in the buying panic. All bubbles end like this.
Smart money is beginning to reason, why should I be satisfied with a 1 % return in the US Dollar as the US government bailouts of banks/ auto companies which guarantee a debasing of the US Dollar currency. Lower volume on the above chart shows smart money is beginning to withdrawOnce Obama takes power he will bailout the housing industry and Joe Public, with massive stimulus packages adding more liquidity to the system. The US Dollar on purchasing power parity is no longer cheap. The AUD is 10 % undervalued based on this PPP benchmark. Moreover US Productivity has dropped to 0 % as the recession deepens
Once the Treasury bubble pops expect the Euro/ Australian Dollar/ to gain and this will benefit us who hold Man AHL and other AUD Man Funds.. Also expect the KLSE and other world markets to gain from an inflow of funds by those who are selling their US Bonds once the panic ends.
The actual Man funds have done well this year unlike the majority of hedge funds.. Please read the attached report detailing Man performance. Man being a trend following fund profits with volatility and be sure 2009 will be a volatile year.
The AHL pure commodity/futures non guaranteed fund is open ended and you can join anytime . This could be a good investment for 2009 no matter what happens in the stock market. Let me or Martin know if you have any questions on this or if you wish to invest.
Best regards
Bill
This report is for those who invested in Man Funds or might be considering to add to your positions.
There has been extreme volatility in world currency markets as panic stricken investors world wide have liquidated shares, commodities, property, mortgage and corporate bonds. Volatility and price drops such as these have not been seen since the world depression of 1929- 1931.
In this atmosphere of fear and uncertainty investors have stampeding into the ultimate safe haven- US Treasury bonds. 3 month US bill rates have dropped to 0.01 percent.The 10 year bond is at 2.5 % while the 30 year bond is at 3.005 %. These are 1930 depression levels for these instruments. Large funds are buying treasuries to ride out the storm. This is creating a bubble much like the internet bubble and the recent crude oil bubble.
Chart of the US 30 year bond tells the story. As price goes higher and higher volume gets lesser and lesser which is a signal that demand is dropping. There are fewer buyers at the top as smart money is selling to the herd of sheep who are caught up in the buying panic. All bubbles end like this.
Smart money is beginning to reason, why should I be satisfied with a 1 % return in the US Dollar as the US government bailouts of banks/ auto companies which guarantee a debasing of the US Dollar currency. Lower volume on the above chart shows smart money is beginning to withdrawOnce Obama takes power he will bailout the housing industry and Joe Public, with massive stimulus packages adding more liquidity to the system. The US Dollar on purchasing power parity is no longer cheap. The AUD is 10 % undervalued based on this PPP benchmark. Moreover US Productivity has dropped to 0 % as the recession deepens
Once the Treasury bubble pops expect the Euro/ Australian Dollar/ to gain and this will benefit us who hold Man AHL and other AUD Man Funds.. Also expect the KLSE and other world markets to gain from an inflow of funds by those who are selling their US Bonds once the panic ends.
The actual Man funds have done well this year unlike the majority of hedge funds.. Please read the attached report detailing Man performance. Man being a trend following fund profits with volatility and be sure 2009 will be a volatile year.
The AHL pure commodity/futures non guaranteed fund is open ended and you can join anytime . This could be a good investment for 2009 no matter what happens in the stock market. Let me or Martin know if you have any questions on this or if you wish to invest.
Best regards
Bill
Sunday, December 07, 2008
4:55 pm - Despite all the bad news coming out from US, DJIA is up for the week !
I think the time to be buying is closer now than a week ago. But it is still not the time to buy yet for our market.
4:53 pm - U.S. Job Losses Signal Recession Will Be Long, Deep (Update2)
U.S. Job Losses Signal Recession Will Be Long, Deep (Update2)
By Rich Miller and Bob Willis
Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may be headed for its deepest and longest recession since World War II as mounting job losses take their toll on consumer confidence and spending.
Employers cut payrolls last month at the fastest pace in 34 years as the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent, the highest level since 1993. The 533,000 drop brought cumulative job losses this year to 1.91 million, the Labor Department said yesterday in Washington.
“Almost all businesses are in survival mode, and they’re slashing payrolls and investments just to conserve cash,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. “We’re in store for some big job losses.”
The plunge may spur incoming President Barack Obama to come up with a fiscal stimulus package larger than the $700 billion plan some economists advocate. Obama today promised to make the “single largest new investment” in roads and public buildings as part of his plan to save or create 2.5 million jobs.
Yesterday’s figures added urgency to negotiations over aid to U.S. automakers. Democrats in Congress reached an agreement in principle with the Bush administration on providing funds to prevent a collapse of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, a congressional aide said.
U.S. stocks fell for the fourth time in five weeks as the worsening job market added to concern the recession is deepening. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 2.3 percent to 876.07, trimming its rebound from the 11-year low reached on Nov. 20 to 16 percent.
Fourth-Quarter GDP
John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said the jobs report suggests that the economy shrank at annual rate of 5 percent in the final three months of the year. That would be the biggest contraction since the first quarter of 1982.
“Consumer confidence is going to be bad,” Silvia said. “It is going to be a difficult winter for a lot of people.”
Yelena Grinberg of San Francisco is already feeling the effects of a sluggish labor market. The 26 year old has sent out more than 100 resumes since she lost her job as an administrative assistant, and has only landed one position: doing clerical work for $12 an hour over two days.
“It’s really tough,” she said, standing outside an Employment Development Department office in San Francisco. “I was so sure it wasn’t going to be hard. But no one wants to look at me,” she said, starting to cry. “I’m running out of money and I’m freaking out.”
GM, Citigroup
Job losses are likely to mount next year as the collapse in credit and slump in spending hurt companies from Citigroup Inc. to AT&T Inc. Legg Mason Inc., a Baltimore-based fund manager, said yesterday it will eliminate 8 percent of its workforce.
Payrolls in November were forecast to drop by 335,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate was projected to rise to 6.8 percent.
Revisions for September and October increased losses by 199,000. November was the 11th consecutive drop in payrolls.
The employment slump was a key factor in determining the start of the recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of U.S. business cycles, announced this week that a contraction began in December 2007, the month payrolls peaked.
Yearlong Recession
At 12 months, the recession is already the longest since the 16-month slump that ended in November 1982. The recession is the 11th since a downturn that occurred in 1945, the year that World War II ended.
To fight the downturn, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week outlined unorthodox policy action that officials can take beyond lowering interest rates. One option would be to purchase longer-term Treasuries on the open market to inject more cash into the financial system.
The central bank may also cut its benchmark rate from 1 percent at its meeting Dec. 15-16 in Washington. HSBC Holdings Inc. economists yesterday forecast the Fed will reduce it to zero, emulating the Bank of Japan’s efforts to defeat deflation earlier this decade.
Factory payrolls fell 85,000, the Labor Department said. The slide would have been even worse without the return of 27,000 striking machinists at Boeing Co.
Also preventing the unemployment rate from climbing even more last month was a surge in part-time workers. The number of Americans saying they worked part-time last month due to economic reasons -- either because their hours were cut or they couldn’t find full-time jobs -- surged to 7.32 million, the most since records began in 1955.
Hit to Carmakers
U.S. automakers have been particularly hard hit as sales last month dropped to the lowest level in 26 years. The top executives of GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler this week appealed to Congress for as much as $34 billion in government assistance.
Lawmakers who support bailing out U.S. automakers sought to rally support for a scaled-down loan program, citing the grim jobs report as evidence that bankruptcies of any of the Big Three would be disastrous for the economy.
At least some of the acceleration in job losses is the result of the tightening grip of the credit crunch, with loss- ridden banks making it harder to borrow, economists said. Policy makers’ decision in September to let investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. fail, while saving other financial institutions, may have contributed to the crisis.
“It’s the collapse heard around the world,” said Ellen Zentner, a senior economist in New York at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., which had the closest payrolls forecast in the Bloomberg survey. “It’s probably one of the worst decisions the Fed ever made -- to save everybody else but Lehman.”
Housing Slump
Financial firms decreased payrolls by 32,000 last month, after a loss of 31,000 in October. The report also reflected the housing slump, with builders eliminating 82,000 posts after a 64,000 drop the month before.
“We don’t get the job losses stopping until 2010,” Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
By Rich Miller and Bob Willis
Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may be headed for its deepest and longest recession since World War II as mounting job losses take their toll on consumer confidence and spending.
Employers cut payrolls last month at the fastest pace in 34 years as the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent, the highest level since 1993. The 533,000 drop brought cumulative job losses this year to 1.91 million, the Labor Department said yesterday in Washington.
“Almost all businesses are in survival mode, and they’re slashing payrolls and investments just to conserve cash,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. “We’re in store for some big job losses.”
The plunge may spur incoming President Barack Obama to come up with a fiscal stimulus package larger than the $700 billion plan some economists advocate. Obama today promised to make the “single largest new investment” in roads and public buildings as part of his plan to save or create 2.5 million jobs.
Yesterday’s figures added urgency to negotiations over aid to U.S. automakers. Democrats in Congress reached an agreement in principle with the Bush administration on providing funds to prevent a collapse of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, a congressional aide said.
U.S. stocks fell for the fourth time in five weeks as the worsening job market added to concern the recession is deepening. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 2.3 percent to 876.07, trimming its rebound from the 11-year low reached on Nov. 20 to 16 percent.
Fourth-Quarter GDP
John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said the jobs report suggests that the economy shrank at annual rate of 5 percent in the final three months of the year. That would be the biggest contraction since the first quarter of 1982.
“Consumer confidence is going to be bad,” Silvia said. “It is going to be a difficult winter for a lot of people.”
Yelena Grinberg of San Francisco is already feeling the effects of a sluggish labor market. The 26 year old has sent out more than 100 resumes since she lost her job as an administrative assistant, and has only landed one position: doing clerical work for $12 an hour over two days.
“It’s really tough,” she said, standing outside an Employment Development Department office in San Francisco. “I was so sure it wasn’t going to be hard. But no one wants to look at me,” she said, starting to cry. “I’m running out of money and I’m freaking out.”
GM, Citigroup
Job losses are likely to mount next year as the collapse in credit and slump in spending hurt companies from Citigroup Inc. to AT&T Inc. Legg Mason Inc., a Baltimore-based fund manager, said yesterday it will eliminate 8 percent of its workforce.
Payrolls in November were forecast to drop by 335,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate was projected to rise to 6.8 percent.
Revisions for September and October increased losses by 199,000. November was the 11th consecutive drop in payrolls.
The employment slump was a key factor in determining the start of the recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of U.S. business cycles, announced this week that a contraction began in December 2007, the month payrolls peaked.
Yearlong Recession
At 12 months, the recession is already the longest since the 16-month slump that ended in November 1982. The recession is the 11th since a downturn that occurred in 1945, the year that World War II ended.
To fight the downturn, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week outlined unorthodox policy action that officials can take beyond lowering interest rates. One option would be to purchase longer-term Treasuries on the open market to inject more cash into the financial system.
The central bank may also cut its benchmark rate from 1 percent at its meeting Dec. 15-16 in Washington. HSBC Holdings Inc. economists yesterday forecast the Fed will reduce it to zero, emulating the Bank of Japan’s efforts to defeat deflation earlier this decade.
Factory payrolls fell 85,000, the Labor Department said. The slide would have been even worse without the return of 27,000 striking machinists at Boeing Co.
Also preventing the unemployment rate from climbing even more last month was a surge in part-time workers. The number of Americans saying they worked part-time last month due to economic reasons -- either because their hours were cut or they couldn’t find full-time jobs -- surged to 7.32 million, the most since records began in 1955.
Hit to Carmakers
U.S. automakers have been particularly hard hit as sales last month dropped to the lowest level in 26 years. The top executives of GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler this week appealed to Congress for as much as $34 billion in government assistance.
Lawmakers who support bailing out U.S. automakers sought to rally support for a scaled-down loan program, citing the grim jobs report as evidence that bankruptcies of any of the Big Three would be disastrous for the economy.
At least some of the acceleration in job losses is the result of the tightening grip of the credit crunch, with loss- ridden banks making it harder to borrow, economists said. Policy makers’ decision in September to let investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. fail, while saving other financial institutions, may have contributed to the crisis.
“It’s the collapse heard around the world,” said Ellen Zentner, a senior economist in New York at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., which had the closest payrolls forecast in the Bloomberg survey. “It’s probably one of the worst decisions the Fed ever made -- to save everybody else but Lehman.”
Housing Slump
Financial firms decreased payrolls by 32,000 last month, after a loss of 31,000 in October. The report also reflected the housing slump, with builders eliminating 82,000 posts after a 64,000 drop the month before.
“We don’t get the job losses stopping until 2010,” Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
Friday, December 05, 2008
5:10 pm - FKLI is moving sideway. The downside is limited so far !
The professionals are not interested in the market now !
9:53 am - I am back in business and on line to place order.
I am currently located at Bursa Malaysia LG level and I will be stationed there for the time being.
You can call my handphone to place order at Martin 012 207 8633.
Rgds,
-martin-
You can call my handphone to place order at Martin 012 207 8633.
Rgds,
-martin-
Thursday, December 04, 2008
9:30 pm - CIMB Building Commerce Square off limits to employee due to landslide caused by heavy rains.
Dear all clients,
I will not be stationed at my office in CIMB Commerce Square Jalan Semantan due to the landslide occurring next to the office building.
I think the building is deemed unsafe.
I will be operating out from a disaster recovering site in Kompakar, Jalan Bersatu, PJ.
You can still call me to trade from my mobile phone 012 207 8633 or you can call Chong at 016 662 0881.
Will update and keep you posted tomorrow.
Rgds,
-martin-
I will not be stationed at my office in CIMB Commerce Square Jalan Semantan due to the landslide occurring next to the office building.
I think the building is deemed unsafe.
I will be operating out from a disaster recovering site in Kompakar, Jalan Bersatu, PJ.
You can still call me to trade from my mobile phone 012 207 8633 or you can call Chong at 016 662 0881.
Will update and keep you posted tomorrow.
Rgds,
-martin-
4:06 pm - Palm Oil Conference in Bali
James Fry:
CPO prices are expected to fall below $400 a tonne by April next year as CO is expected to dip below $35 a barrel.M'sian PO stock could range between 1.9 to 2.0 mt for the next 6 months.Chinese demand expected to remain flat for four more months.M'sia should implement its new biodiesel mandates as the raw materials are ample and to avoid some clout politically.
GAPKI:
Forecast: Av. CPO price cif Rotterdam would be $500-$600 (RM 1800- RM 2100) a tonne. Below $450 (RM 1600)a tonne if the current crisis deepens.Indon's PO output growth expected to slow next year on replanting and less fertilizer usage due to low prices.PO output to rise 8.5% in 2009 to 20.25 mt. This is higher than govt.'s forecast of 19.4 mt. (In current year it is higher by 10% to 18.8 mt.)
DORAB MISTRY:
CPO prices to hover around RM 1,500 ($415) a tonne in next 8 to 10 weeks - till mid feb'09.PO output growth to slow down from Dec'08 due to change in biological cycle - yield stress after months of solid production.This could alter PO'S relationship with SBO which stood at a $350 premium in Nov at Rotterdam. The large discount could able to capture markets and expected to narrow in coming months.In the last two months, palm has attracted new markets such as Middle East and Eastern Europe apart from its traditional market.It remains to be seen if this results in greater consumption or substitution by palm in place of more expensive oils or is just a case shifting stocks
CPO prices are expected to fall below $400 a tonne by April next year as CO is expected to dip below $35 a barrel.M'sian PO stock could range between 1.9 to 2.0 mt for the next 6 months.Chinese demand expected to remain flat for four more months.M'sia should implement its new biodiesel mandates as the raw materials are ample and to avoid some clout politically.
GAPKI:
Forecast: Av. CPO price cif Rotterdam would be $500-$600 (RM 1800- RM 2100) a tonne. Below $450 (RM 1600)a tonne if the current crisis deepens.Indon's PO output growth expected to slow next year on replanting and less fertilizer usage due to low prices.PO output to rise 8.5% in 2009 to 20.25 mt. This is higher than govt.'s forecast of 19.4 mt. (In current year it is higher by 10% to 18.8 mt.)
DORAB MISTRY:
CPO prices to hover around RM 1,500 ($415) a tonne in next 8 to 10 weeks - till mid feb'09.PO output growth to slow down from Dec'08 due to change in biological cycle - yield stress after months of solid production.This could alter PO'S relationship with SBO which stood at a $350 premium in Nov at Rotterdam. The large discount could able to capture markets and expected to narrow in coming months.In the last two months, palm has attracted new markets such as Middle East and Eastern Europe apart from its traditional market.It remains to be seen if this results in greater consumption or substitution by palm in place of more expensive oils or is just a case shifting stocks
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
9:27 am - FKLI is building a base for more downward or upward movement ???
Else it is likely to move sideway .
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
12:44 pm - There is weakness in DJIA
There is effort to push up but DJIA fall easier than most ppl think ! Therefore locking everyone in the long position.
Resistance is seen at 8800.
Monday, December 01, 2008
9:45 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
Bad times dont last....tough investors will..
Jesse Livermore wrote in his book, How to Trade in Stocks "Whenever the market does not act right or the way it should that is reason enough to change your opinion." Despite the onslaught of bad news - S & P down 51 % for the biggest drop since 1931- Citibank bailed out to the tune of USD 350 billion,
GM and Ford insolvent, House foreclosures in the US at the highest rate since 1932. Unemployment jumps to 18 year high etc etc. Terror strikes Mumbai- however if Livermore were alive he would be buying because the world markets are refusing to go down on extreme fear, panic and bad news.
The Dow Jones jumped 1250 points last week and most world markets also made impressive gains. Even the KLSE stabilized despite the universal negativity of the analist crowd.
Carlos Slim, the Mexican billionaire bought 29 million Citigroup shares for USD 3.10 a share and Citi since recoved to over USD 5.60. a 100% return in 3 weeks.
He did not become a billionaire by being stupid. Continue to accumulate high grade dividend KLSE shares in the consumer sector. Palm oil is also stabilizing. Hedge fund Man AHL had a 16 % return last month. The capital guaranteed funds returned 8.4 %. Man fund managers are reversing slowly back into long commodities/ stock futures after making money on the short side.
Man is the smart money
Dow Jones- Smart money is buying. Notice the green box near the right edge of the chart signaling stopping volume and test of support. In fact bad news is the friend of the smart money.
Bad times dont last....tough investors will..
Jesse Livermore wrote in his book, How to Trade in Stocks "Whenever the market does not act right or the way it should that is reason enough to change your opinion." Despite the onslaught of bad news - S & P down 51 % for the biggest drop since 1931- Citibank bailed out to the tune of USD 350 billion,
GM and Ford insolvent, House foreclosures in the US at the highest rate since 1932. Unemployment jumps to 18 year high etc etc. Terror strikes Mumbai- however if Livermore were alive he would be buying because the world markets are refusing to go down on extreme fear, panic and bad news.
The Dow Jones jumped 1250 points last week and most world markets also made impressive gains. Even the KLSE stabilized despite the universal negativity of the analist crowd.
Carlos Slim, the Mexican billionaire bought 29 million Citigroup shares for USD 3.10 a share and Citi since recoved to over USD 5.60. a 100% return in 3 weeks.
He did not become a billionaire by being stupid. Continue to accumulate high grade dividend KLSE shares in the consumer sector. Palm oil is also stabilizing. Hedge fund Man AHL had a 16 % return last month. The capital guaranteed funds returned 8.4 %. Man fund managers are reversing slowly back into long commodities/ stock futures after making money on the short side.
Man is the smart money
Dow Jones- Smart money is buying. Notice the green box near the right edge of the chart signaling stopping volume and test of support. In fact bad news is the friend of the smart money.
For those who trade currencies this may be of interest. Phillip has a new platform with many new features that compare favorably with other services. The Singapore Phillip team will showcase it. Below are the details:
This is a presentation on THEIR latest FOREX Trading platform. It a more dynamic, and powerful platform for the FOREX traders.
Date and Time: Thursday (4th Nov) 6.30 pm onwards, and Saturday (6th Nov) 1 pm onwards
Attendees will get to see the new trading platform as well as have hands on experience on the platform.
Interested participants can email josephtan@phillip.com.sg or grace@phillip.com.sg.
Cheers
Bill
Friday, November 28, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
9:16 am - DJIA looks bullish last nite indicated by the high volume - bottom reversal !
I think some profit taking wud take place tonite !
Monday, November 24, 2008
10 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
With all the bad news about hedge funds going bust/ bankruptcies/ credit collapse/ world depression/ stock market collapse CPO to fall to RM 150 per ton etc Many of you are worried about your investment with Man. Man AHL has had a positive return this year although we have lost on the AUD exchange rate versus the RM.Should the AUD recover we will be well in the money.
Anthony Hall, Executive Director- Asia of Man Investments gave a briefing at Phillip last week and the reasons over 90 % of hedge funds in the world have had negative returns or gone bust this year and why Man has been able to survive and prosper.
He also gave reasons why the US Dollar will resume its downtrend and the AUD/ Commodities may recover.
World wide panic has forced investors to seek the ultimate safety of US Treasury notes. Investors need US Dollars to purchase these. This has caused panic selling of every asset class including currencies/bonds/ stocks and property to raise US Dollars.
The interest rate of the US Treasury notes is only .38 % which is much less than inflation. As credit markets and fear subsides professional investors will move back into commodities and this will weaken the dollar. Those who manage pension funds and private wealth funds must earn more than .38 % interest rates to meet the needs of their wealthy clients. Every day these managers are suffering the negative interest rates as they watch their assets lose money to inflation.
Man is anticipating the trend turn and is slowly moving to long from short in their positions including crude oil/ grains and stock futures. Remember Man has some of most succesful traders on the planet managing their funds.
Mr Hall explained that Man has very low leverage and deals in commodies/ stock futures contracts which are cash settled and guaranteed by the clearing house of the exchange. There are no credit or default issues unlike Lehman bonds/ Subprime securities.
Many hedge funds went bust because the mortgage securities they held were illiquid- no buyers and banks would not extend credit and this resulted in forced liquidation and huge losses to investors.
Man on the other hand because they only deal in liquid securities had no credit problems and London / International banks are only to happy to extend credit.
Unfortunately the new OM IP Man capital guarantee fund closed Friday and I congratulate those who subscribed. You can still participate in the AHL open ended Fund which has had an outstanding return this year and no loss on the AUD. AHL is not guaranteed and no 4 % sales rebate.
Expect a ranging whipsawing KLSE this week and keep to high quality issues. Our main course is on 13/14/15 Dec at the Sheraton/ Subang. We have only 2 seats left and am really surprised about the positive response to our event. The room we booked is full. If you are a graduate of our main course you can attend FOC ( Hotel charges apply) but we may need to squeeze you in at the back due to the good response.
Have a good week
Bill
With all the bad news about hedge funds going bust/ bankruptcies/ credit collapse/ world depression/ stock market collapse CPO to fall to RM 150 per ton etc Many of you are worried about your investment with Man. Man AHL has had a positive return this year although we have lost on the AUD exchange rate versus the RM.Should the AUD recover we will be well in the money.
Anthony Hall, Executive Director- Asia of Man Investments gave a briefing at Phillip last week and the reasons over 90 % of hedge funds in the world have had negative returns or gone bust this year and why Man has been able to survive and prosper.
He also gave reasons why the US Dollar will resume its downtrend and the AUD/ Commodities may recover.
World wide panic has forced investors to seek the ultimate safety of US Treasury notes. Investors need US Dollars to purchase these. This has caused panic selling of every asset class including currencies/bonds/ stocks and property to raise US Dollars.
The interest rate of the US Treasury notes is only .38 % which is much less than inflation. As credit markets and fear subsides professional investors will move back into commodities and this will weaken the dollar. Those who manage pension funds and private wealth funds must earn more than .38 % interest rates to meet the needs of their wealthy clients. Every day these managers are suffering the negative interest rates as they watch their assets lose money to inflation.
Man is anticipating the trend turn and is slowly moving to long from short in their positions including crude oil/ grains and stock futures. Remember Man has some of most succesful traders on the planet managing their funds.
Mr Hall explained that Man has very low leverage and deals in commodies/ stock futures contracts which are cash settled and guaranteed by the clearing house of the exchange. There are no credit or default issues unlike Lehman bonds/ Subprime securities.
Many hedge funds went bust because the mortgage securities they held were illiquid- no buyers and banks would not extend credit and this resulted in forced liquidation and huge losses to investors.
Man on the other hand because they only deal in liquid securities had no credit problems and London / International banks are only to happy to extend credit.
Unfortunately the new OM IP Man capital guarantee fund closed Friday and I congratulate those who subscribed. You can still participate in the AHL open ended Fund which has had an outstanding return this year and no loss on the AUD. AHL is not guaranteed and no 4 % sales rebate.
Expect a ranging whipsawing KLSE this week and keep to high quality issues. Our main course is on 13/14/15 Dec at the Sheraton/ Subang. We have only 2 seats left and am really surprised about the positive response to our event. The room we booked is full. If you are a graduate of our main course you can attend FOC ( Hotel charges apply) but we may need to squeeze you in at the back due to the good response.
Have a good week
Bill
Saturday, November 22, 2008
7:28 am - Stocks surge on report of Geithner nomination
Stocks surge on report of Geithner nomination NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street staged a comeback Friday, with the major indexesjumping more than 5 percent and the Dow Jones industrials surging nearly 500points. The late afternoon rally ended another volatile week that saw stocks reachsix-year lows. Stocks erased about half of the steep losses from Wednesday and Thursday, asinvestors got an unexpected jolt of confidence following an NBC News report thatPresident-elect Barack Obama plans to name New York Federal Reserve PresidentTimothy Geithner as Treasury secretary. Investors have been looking for a clear message from Obama on who will leadhis economic brain trust at a time when the country is facing its biggestfinancial crisis since the Great Depression. In addition, some on Wall Streethave grown frustrated with outgoing Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson over hishandling of the government's effort to rescue the banking system. "Something needed to be done on the economy," said Ben Halliburton, chiefinvestment officer at Tradition Capital Management. "The fact that they've gotthe team together, maybe that is going to shorten the period of indecision." A senior Democratic official familiar with the deliberations confirmed toThe Associated Press that Geithner is likely to be named as Treasury secretary.The official requested anonymity because the nomination hasn't been formallyannounced. The advance in stocks also came as the FDIC said it would guarantee up to$1.4 trillion in U.S. banks' debt for more than three years as part of thegovernment's financial rescue plan. The directors of the Federal DepositInsurance Corp. voted Friday to approve the plan, which is meant to break thecrippling logjam in bank-to-bank lending. Stocks fluctuated throughout most of trading Friday, as fresh concerns overthe stability of the financial sector prevented the market from establishing anysustainable gains. But stocks moved sharply higher in the final half hour afterthe report on Geithner. The Dow rose 494.13 points, or 6.54 percent, to settle at 8,046.42. TheStandard & Poor's 500 index jumped 47.59, or 6.32 percent, to 800.03, and theNasdaq composite advanced 68.23, or 5.18 percent, to 1,384.35. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 21.23, or 5.51 percent, to406.54. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 2 to 1 on the New York StockExchange, where volume came to 2.37 billion shares. With the steep pullbacks earlier this week, the Dow began Friday's sessiondown 43.1 percent this year, while the S&P 500 index -- a benchmark for theoverall U.S. stock market -- was down 48.8 percent. The Nasdaq composite indexhad lost 50.4 percent this year. And despite Friday's gains, stocks are still down sharply for the week. TheDow has lost 5.31 percent, while the S&P 500 fell 8.39 percent and the Nasdaqlost 8.74 percent. Paper losses for the week in U.S. stocks came to $1 trillion,according to the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index, which reflects nearlyall stocks traded in America. In the two previous days, the Dow had lost a staggering 873 points, morethan 10 percent of its value, and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index hadsunk to its lowest level since 1997. Still, Friday's rally sets up the potential for more gains going forward,analysts said. "I think we're clearly set up for some sort of relief rally," Halliburtonsaid. "People have been holding their breath for a relief rally for weeks.Unfortunately, most of the rallies have been short-lived." But while the cloud of uncertainty surrounding Obama's economic team hasbeen removed, there are still plenty of unknowns facing the market. As a result, volatility will remain a major force on Wall Street for sometime to come, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bankin Chicago. He said worries about marquee companies from General Motors Corp. toCitigroup Inc. are unnerving investors. "What we're seeing is these symbols of American business history reallysuffering and prompting investors to call into question the viability of thesystem," Ablin said, referring to the functioning of the broader economy. Investors have grown increasingly anxious this week that losses from souringdebt will swamp banks, even those given financial support through thegovernment's $700 billion rescue plan. Citigroup, in particular, is a concernfor Wall Street because the company hasn't booked a profit in the past fourquarters. As the banking giant's shares slid below $4, analysts said Friday it may beforced to merge or sell some of its prized businesses. Citigroup has alreadyraised $75 billion in capital this year, including a $25 billion cash investmentfrom the government -- and none of it has been enough to muster confidence. Investors have also worried about the fate of GM, Ford Motor Co. andChrysler LLC. The heads of the companies, warning that automakers are perilouslylow on cash, have been asking Washington for $25 billion in loans. But lawmakershave likely put off a vote on whether to extend a lifeline until next month andhave asked the automakers for detailed plans about how they would use the money.The prospect of a bankruptcy filing by one or more of the companies has added toWall Street's worries about the state of the economy. Bond prices fell Friday as credit markets eased somewhat following afreeze-up Thursday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, whichmoves opposite its price, jumped to 3.19 percent from 3.00 percent lateThursday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safestinvestments, rose to 0.02 percent from 0.01 percent late Thursday. Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 51 cents to settle at $49.93 abarrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The dollar fell against other majorcurrencies, while gold prices rose. Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average jumped 2.70 percent. In Europeantrading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.43 percent, while Germany's DAX index fell2.20 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 3.33 percent.
Friday, November 21, 2008
9:28 am - DJIA has broken its support with ease and with high volume !
Watch out for quick reversal now ! Hidden potential buying !
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
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