Monday, February 18, 2008
4:13 pm - FKLI staging a comeback after Hang Seng closed with -380 pts down.
This is a typical fashion on how FKLI behaves around 4.00 pm - 5.15 pm.
9:27 am - FKLI holding up nicely just like KLCI
I believe professionals maybe accumulating. Need to wait for confirmaton.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
8:04 am - Soybeans hit record on Chinese demand
NEW YORK (AP) - Soybean futures rose to a record Friday, surpassing $14 a bushel for the first time amid expectations of rising demand in China for the grain used to feed livestock and make biofuel. Other commodities traded mixed, with crude oil futures ending about flat and gold and silver edging lower. Soybean prices have surged 9.5 percent so far this year, buoyed by dwindling stockpiles and growing demand in China, the world's largest soybean buyer. On Thursday, China's agriculture minister said that bad winter storms had severely damaged 40 percent of the country's rapeseed crop -- leading investors to bet the country will boost buying of soybeans to make up the shortfall. "Whenever a (government) minister makes a statement, the market definitely listens. ... That brought a lot more speculative money into the market on the bean side," said Jason Ward, analyst with Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis. Soybeans for May delivery soared to an all-time high of $14.045 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade before easing back on profit-taking to settle at $13.7375 a bushel, still up 5.75 cents. Other agriculture commodities also rose. Wheat for May delivery gained 1 cent to settle at $10.42 a bushel on the CBOT, while March corn gained 3.75 cents to settle at $5.1475 a bushel. Soybeans had a phenomenal run last year and are poised for another strong performance in 2008. U.S. exporters have already sold more than three-quarters of the soybeans the Agriculture Department predicts for the whole marketing year, which ends in June. Although current supplies appear ample, analysts say the market is headed into a downward trend and that farmers need to plant more soybeans than they did last year -- when an ethanol boom led farmers to favor planting corn acres over soybeans. "We're selling (soybeans) obviously at a quick pace that needs to slow down" in order to meet long-term demand, Ward said. In precious metals, gold and silver futures fell after the dollar strengthened against some major currencies. Gold for April delivery lost $4.70 to settle at $906.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. March silver lost 13.7 cents to settle at $17.118 an ounce, while March copper added 3.5 cents to settle at $3.523 a pound. Platinum, meanwhile, continued its record-setting rally amid supply concerns fed by a power shortage in South Africa that could slow mining operations for up to four years. Platinum for April delivery leaped $57.80 to settle at $2,063.70 an ounce on the Nymex. The metal later surged to an all-time high of $2,087 an ounce in aftermarket trading. In energy markets, crude oil futures closed essentially flat Friday as investors cashed in profits from recent gains and worried over data suggesting a drop in oil demand. Light, sweet crude for March delivery inched up 4 cents to settle at $95.50 on the Nymex. Oil prices have risen more than $8 in little more than a week. Other energy futures traded mixed Friday. March gasoline futures rose 1.77 cents to settle at $2.4938 a gallon on the Nymex, while March heating oil fell 1.97 cents to $2.6469 a gallon. Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may
Friday, February 15, 2008
10:04 am - FKLI - Could this be a forming a Head and Shoulder Pattern
You can see the right shoulder followed by the Head and the left shoulder which yet to be formed ? Once you see and confirmed the left shoulder, the market is more likely to turn bearish ?
Looking back to the last 2004 election if history is any indicators, the market back in 2004 was moving sideway and 5 days leading to the polling date, the market moves up.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
9:03 am - DJIA up +178 pts - FKLI gap up
The news is out i.e. the market will move up from now until elections. In between, there will be profit taking. Today is a crucial day is see how the KLCI market react to the polling date.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
3:16 pm - The Market does not like the Dissolvement of Parliament and selldown !
This is a right opportunity to buy. The market cannot go down that much. They have to come and support it.
10:28 am :Four Steps to Taking Intelligent Trading Risks
Four Steps to Taking Intelligent Trading Risks
By Ari Kiev
In the month of January a lot of hedge fund managers were encountering enormous difficulties. Some complained of being in a "trading funk where nothing worked." Others "couldn't get it right" and lost confidence in their day-to-day decision-making ability. Volatility expanded rapidly during a four-week span, and no one expected the numbers to be as bad as they turned out to be. Some held on stubbornly, refusing to take their positions down, believing that things would turn around. The trades were crowded; some thought that they should have been more aggressive in hedging and should have reduced the size of their positions.
This reminded me of one trader, Everett whom I had talked to a while back, who admitted that he was in some trades that were relatively new for him and he increased his risk by adding to trades that turned out to be different ways of expressing the same bet. Unfortunately, his risk systems weren't really in place. He apparently also took his eye off the ball by getting involved in so many unfamiliar trades and assuming that the macro trades were good.
In fact, his problems had a lot to do with his method of information gathering and the stress he was experiencing as a result of his recent losses. And the lessons he learned could be seen as applying to many traders at the start of 2008. In order to get back on track, traders have to better differentiate the so-called noise from the information available to them and to become more active in the management of positions. At times of high volatility and market downturns, traders have to trade fewer strategies, reduce the size of their relative value trades, become more active in the macro sphere, and become more contrarian. They also need to achieve better risk control by getting out of positions that aren't working. They need to keep moving and not become paralyzed by the price action.
Everett is far from being the only trader with issues about information gathering. The process can be stressful, especially for nonanalytical types. Some people are naturally wired to take extreme risks with insufficient information or thoughtfulness. For these traders, the practice of digging deeper can seem mundane and trigger a variety of anxiety responses. Beyond this, their aversion to analysis and a lack of confidence in their intellectual prowess hamper them, especially at times when things aren't working.
Conversely, traders who become too absorbed with information gathering can also create added stress for themselves. They spend too much time digging in and too little time actually placing the bet. Traders who are obsessed with getting the whole picture right can increase their levels of stress when they gain too much information to adequately process it or use it, or when they postpone action in order to gain more information.
Of course, some traders may come into the process of information gathering already besieged by anxiety, and this anxiety can actually interfere with how they gather and perceive data. As a result they lack the psychological energy to think strategically and to look for original ways of examining the material they collect. For example, they may fail to seek out innovative perspectives that might give them an angle on company change. Stress-ridden traders forget to keep triangulating information -- checking with a variety of sources to prove or disprove a theory, as well as double-checking data to ensure accurate stock judgment.
Other anxious traders lack the patience to gather data points from a variety of perspectives so as to form their own conclusions or make their own decisions. Instead, they may be too quick to act on inadequate information and tend to believe in their ideas rather than developing a skeptical or agnostic view of their analyses. Moreover, they may become too attached to ideas and inclined to be unwilling to be flexible or adaptable in the face of new information and perspectives.
An almost phobic avoidance of stress may keep other traders from stretching to obtain more information or from asking difficult questions, because they are fearful of appearing foolish or wrong. Neglecting information gathering can only lead to more losses, which subsequently only lead to more stress.
Actually, the process of information gathering can be a way of helping reduce anxiety. When a trader is as prepared as he possibly can be and is trading on the basis of reliable information or research, his levels of anxiety should be less than if he were taking a shot in the dark.
To take increased risk in the marketplace requires a combination of understanding the fundamentals and having the courage to trade your convictions. Trading bigger requires more data gathering and processing so as to produce results.
Four Steps to Taking Bigger Risks
1. Create an information edge so that you are ahead of the curve.
2. Have a thesis that you can support with data.
3. Assess the sources of the data.
4. Trade on the basis of this data against others in the marketplace.
The trader who understands risk will pay attention to corporate numbers and guidance and will try to analyze the relevance of these numbers to where the company stands relative to its major competitors. He is also able to differentiate between companies and does not simply trade noise or daily movement.
The best traders focus on the company balance sheet, earnings reports, and an assessment of the growth prospects of the company. They also compare the company on a relative valuation basis to other companies in the same space. They consider the state of the economy and any significant macroeconomic variables, such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the cost of energy, and the cost of doing business, and try to assess the nature of the market at the time.
To improve your data, ask yourself: Is this a market that is trading on fundamentals, or is it trading on macroeconomic variables and market sentiment? Then try to get a handle on relevant short-term catalysts -- fresh earnings news, changes in top executives, new technology, for example -- that may influence the market's perception of the value of a stock. Once you take these steps, you can try to make a calculated bet on the impact this data will have on the price of the stock.
Master traders are likely to factor all these things against their past experience in trading the stock, and may buy or sell some of the stock to get a feel as to how the stock is trading. Here they are also interested in the price action and what that tells them about the supply and demand characteristics of the stock -- how it is trading based on an interest in buying or selling it among other investors and traders.
With all this data analysis, they then try to determine the risk/reward profile of a particular trade in terms of its upside versus the downside of the trade. To the extent that it fits within their parameters (say a 3:1 risk/reward ratio) they enter into the trade, all the time being careful to balance the trade in terms of their net long or short exposure. Oftentimes they hedge a bet by making a comparable trade in the opposite direction or by holding options, which they use to leverage their bet and protect their downside risk.
Ari Kiev, M.D. is a world-renowned psychiatrist and author. Dr. Kiev has authored more than 20 books, including the best seller Trading to Win: The Psychology of Mastering the Markets
By Ari Kiev
In the month of January a lot of hedge fund managers were encountering enormous difficulties. Some complained of being in a "trading funk where nothing worked." Others "couldn't get it right" and lost confidence in their day-to-day decision-making ability. Volatility expanded rapidly during a four-week span, and no one expected the numbers to be as bad as they turned out to be. Some held on stubbornly, refusing to take their positions down, believing that things would turn around. The trades were crowded; some thought that they should have been more aggressive in hedging and should have reduced the size of their positions.
This reminded me of one trader, Everett whom I had talked to a while back, who admitted that he was in some trades that were relatively new for him and he increased his risk by adding to trades that turned out to be different ways of expressing the same bet. Unfortunately, his risk systems weren't really in place. He apparently also took his eye off the ball by getting involved in so many unfamiliar trades and assuming that the macro trades were good.
In fact, his problems had a lot to do with his method of information gathering and the stress he was experiencing as a result of his recent losses. And the lessons he learned could be seen as applying to many traders at the start of 2008. In order to get back on track, traders have to better differentiate the so-called noise from the information available to them and to become more active in the management of positions. At times of high volatility and market downturns, traders have to trade fewer strategies, reduce the size of their relative value trades, become more active in the macro sphere, and become more contrarian. They also need to achieve better risk control by getting out of positions that aren't working. They need to keep moving and not become paralyzed by the price action.
Everett is far from being the only trader with issues about information gathering. The process can be stressful, especially for nonanalytical types. Some people are naturally wired to take extreme risks with insufficient information or thoughtfulness. For these traders, the practice of digging deeper can seem mundane and trigger a variety of anxiety responses. Beyond this, their aversion to analysis and a lack of confidence in their intellectual prowess hamper them, especially at times when things aren't working.
Conversely, traders who become too absorbed with information gathering can also create added stress for themselves. They spend too much time digging in and too little time actually placing the bet. Traders who are obsessed with getting the whole picture right can increase their levels of stress when they gain too much information to adequately process it or use it, or when they postpone action in order to gain more information.
Of course, some traders may come into the process of information gathering already besieged by anxiety, and this anxiety can actually interfere with how they gather and perceive data. As a result they lack the psychological energy to think strategically and to look for original ways of examining the material they collect. For example, they may fail to seek out innovative perspectives that might give them an angle on company change. Stress-ridden traders forget to keep triangulating information -- checking with a variety of sources to prove or disprove a theory, as well as double-checking data to ensure accurate stock judgment.
Other anxious traders lack the patience to gather data points from a variety of perspectives so as to form their own conclusions or make their own decisions. Instead, they may be too quick to act on inadequate information and tend to believe in their ideas rather than developing a skeptical or agnostic view of their analyses. Moreover, they may become too attached to ideas and inclined to be unwilling to be flexible or adaptable in the face of new information and perspectives.
An almost phobic avoidance of stress may keep other traders from stretching to obtain more information or from asking difficult questions, because they are fearful of appearing foolish or wrong. Neglecting information gathering can only lead to more losses, which subsequently only lead to more stress.
Actually, the process of information gathering can be a way of helping reduce anxiety. When a trader is as prepared as he possibly can be and is trading on the basis of reliable information or research, his levels of anxiety should be less than if he were taking a shot in the dark.
To take increased risk in the marketplace requires a combination of understanding the fundamentals and having the courage to trade your convictions. Trading bigger requires more data gathering and processing so as to produce results.
Four Steps to Taking Bigger Risks
1. Create an information edge so that you are ahead of the curve.
2. Have a thesis that you can support with data.
3. Assess the sources of the data.
4. Trade on the basis of this data against others in the marketplace.
The trader who understands risk will pay attention to corporate numbers and guidance and will try to analyze the relevance of these numbers to where the company stands relative to its major competitors. He is also able to differentiate between companies and does not simply trade noise or daily movement.
The best traders focus on the company balance sheet, earnings reports, and an assessment of the growth prospects of the company. They also compare the company on a relative valuation basis to other companies in the same space. They consider the state of the economy and any significant macroeconomic variables, such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the cost of energy, and the cost of doing business, and try to assess the nature of the market at the time.
To improve your data, ask yourself: Is this a market that is trading on fundamentals, or is it trading on macroeconomic variables and market sentiment? Then try to get a handle on relevant short-term catalysts -- fresh earnings news, changes in top executives, new technology, for example -- that may influence the market's perception of the value of a stock. Once you take these steps, you can try to make a calculated bet on the impact this data will have on the price of the stock.
Master traders are likely to factor all these things against their past experience in trading the stock, and may buy or sell some of the stock to get a feel as to how the stock is trading. Here they are also interested in the price action and what that tells them about the supply and demand characteristics of the stock -- how it is trading based on an interest in buying or selling it among other investors and traders.
With all this data analysis, they then try to determine the risk/reward profile of a particular trade in terms of its upside versus the downside of the trade. To the extent that it fits within their parameters (say a 3:1 risk/reward ratio) they enter into the trade, all the time being careful to balance the trade in terms of their net long or short exposure. Oftentimes they hedge a bet by making a comparable trade in the opposite direction or by holding options, which they use to leverage their bet and protect their downside risk.
Ari Kiev, M.D. is a world-renowned psychiatrist and author. Dr. Kiev has authored more than 20 books, including the best seller Trading to Win: The Psychology of Mastering the Markets
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Monday, February 11, 2008
4:00 pm - Hang Seng is down -819 pts.
FKLI selldown and break 1398 support easily. Going for Short trade is on for intraday !
9:08 am - FKLI gap down but has support at 1398.0
News had it that parliment will be dissolved on Feb 13, 2008. Announcement for the election will be soon.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
9:06 am - US Stocks close mixed on economic worries
NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street finished a dismal week with a mixed performance Friday as investors grappled with fears about the insurers of distressed mortgage-backed bonds and anxiety about the broader economy. The Dow Jones industrial average, which had risen in earlier trading, fell more than 60 points, while the Nasdaq composite index managed a gain. The market has been shaken in recent weeks by uncertainty surrounding bond insurers and whether they'll be able to handle huge losses in the value of mortgage-backed bonds. On Thursday, Moody's Investors Service lowered its rating on the bond insurer Security Capital Assurance Ltd. Then at midday Friday, Fitch Ratings, another credit rating agency, put a series of mortgage-backed securities insured by MBIA Inc. on negative watch. "The bond insurers are really on people's minds," said Kim Caughey, equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "This is a horribly complex issue." If the ratings agencies downgrade more bonds and bond insurers, the moves could hurt the banks that own the bonds -- and "just drive the credit markets into a downward spiral," Caughey said. "It's things happening further upstream that's making people nervous." Financial stocks fell due to heavy selling in the corporate bond and leveraged loan markets, and meanwhile, soaring commodities prices hit retailers, said Miller Tabak equity strategist Peter Boockvar. Crude oil prices jumped $3.66 to $91.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on expectations of disruptions in Nigerian exports. Retailers, which posted poor sales figures Thursday, have said that consumer spending is not only slowing because of problems in the housing market, but also because of high gasoline and food prices. According to preliminary calculations, the Dow dropped 64.87, or 0.53 percent, to 12,182.13 -- above its lows of the day, but well off its highs, too. The biggest losers among the 30 Dow companies were financial companies American Express Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Broader stock indicators also turned lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 5.62, or 0.42 percent, to 1,331.29, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 11.82, or 0.52 percent, to 2,304.85.
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