Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Monday, November 03, 2008
12:19 noon - Market Outlook from Bill Wermine
Dear Traders.
A week ago, the rush to find US Dollars to repay hugh USD debt was in full force, along with huge flows into US T Bills and notes. Now the river has entered a lake of liquidity dug by the world's central banks, with the US Fed leading the charge with help from Brazil, Mexico, S Korea and Singapore. The result has been a 10 % gain in many world markets including a 6 % gain in the KLSE.
There is a good chance we are looking at a sentiment extreme and prices for the battered victims of the financial markets.
America has awesome twin deficits that make the USD vulnerable and positive for commodities including CPO.
I ran TAVA MetaStock filter today and found several beaten down KLSE blue chip shares with good volume coming in. Could this be the turn ?
The AUD is also turning and should be positive for commodities and our Man Fund AUD investments.
Daily AUD Futures chart showing support coming in and a 776 pip rally.
A week ago, the rush to find US Dollars to repay hugh USD debt was in full force, along with huge flows into US T Bills and notes. Now the river has entered a lake of liquidity dug by the world's central banks, with the US Fed leading the charge with help from Brazil, Mexico, S Korea and Singapore. The result has been a 10 % gain in many world markets including a 6 % gain in the KLSE.
There is a good chance we are looking at a sentiment extreme and prices for the battered victims of the financial markets.
America has awesome twin deficits that make the USD vulnerable and positive for commodities including CPO.
I ran TAVA MetaStock filter today and found several beaten down KLSE blue chip shares with good volume coming in. Could this be the turn ?
The AUD is also turning and should be positive for commodities and our Man Fund AUD investments.
Daily AUD Futures chart showing support coming in and a 776 pip rally.
WE are holding a 10 point CPE course approved by the Securities Commission on 10 November at the Phillip Training room. We start at 10 AM. The subject will be Price and Volume trading. I and Martin intend to make some trades in the CPO and CI Futures markets to demonstrate the power of volume spread analysis as well as some share trades. Cost of the one day course is RM 198. Seats are very limited. FOC to main course grads.
This is a practical course about making money with a very limited amount of theory. Please call Wai Kiat of Phillip Data service 03 398 9522 or 012 398 9522 if you wish to register as he is the organizer.
Risk is low now because of the fear, panic,doom and gloom sentiments of most players.
Have a good week
Bill
Saturday, November 01, 2008
8:29 am - A interesting chart for DJIA - moving higher on increasing volume.
Meeting resistance at 9300. If this break, this wud the 3rd time. Look at P&F charts.
8:27 am - Stocks advance to add to week's large gains
Stocks advance to add to week's large gains NEW YORK (AP) - The stock market closed out ahorrendous October, its worst month in 21 years, with a big advance Friday asmore investors took chances on stocks turned into bargains by waves of intenseselling. The advance -- which gave the market its first back-to-back gains inmore than a month -- fed hopes that Wall Street has indeed found a bottom. The Dow Jones industrials rose 144 points on the day but ended the monthdown 14.1 percent, while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 16.9percent during October as the stock market fell victim to investors' anguishover frozen credit markets and what looked like an inevitable recession. But the month did end on a far more upbeat note than anyone might haveexpected at the height of investors' despair just weeks ago. The Dow was up 11.3percent for the week, its best weekly performance in 34 years, while the S&P 500index rose 10.5 percent -- a sign of stability that followed a growing sensethat the series of government moves to unlock the credit markets would indeedhelp the economy move toward recovery. Investors who have become used to bad economic news dealt calmly Friday withdata showing a drop in consumer spending. Another reason for the advance: Mutualfunds that dumped stocks furiously as the end of their fiscal year approachedwere finished with their selling. While the market capped a terrible month with a strong week, it likely willneed to put the presidential election next week behind it and focus on theOctober employment report due next Friday before committing to a direction. Thejobs report should provide some insight into how long and how severe theeconomic downturn could be. The market is "settling into a little bit of a holding pattern" ahead of theelection and jobs report, said Craig Peckham, market strategist at Jefferies &Co. "The fear level has clearly subsided, but there's still a pervasive tone ofunease." The Dow rose 144.32, or 1.57 percent, to 9,325.01 after rising as much as274 and falling 62. Broader stock indicators also advanced. The S&P 500 index rose 14.66, or1.54 percent, to 968.75, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 22.43, or 1.32percent, to 1,720.95. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 23.34, or 4.54 percent, to537.52. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 5 to 2 on the New York StockExchange, where volume came to a moderate 1.57 billion shares. Lighter volumecan raise questions about the conviction behind the market's moves. October marked the Dow's worst percentage loss since 1987. But the 11.3percent gain for the week -- mostly from an 889-point surge on Tuesday ahead ofthe Federal Reserve's second interest rate cut of the month on Wednesday -- gavethe Dow its best weekly performance since Oct. 11, 1974. Still, the market's stats during the month of October were unnerving: -- Paper losses in U.S. stocks came to $2.5 trillion for the month,according to the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index, which representsnearly all stocks traded in America. The 17.7 percent decline was the worstsince the 23 percent drop in October 1987. -- During the week of Oct. 10, the Dow plunged 1,874.19 points, or 18.2percent to finish at 8,451.19, its lowest close since April 2003. The week'sdecline accounted for half of the blue chips' losses for the entire year. -- The Dow fell for eight straight sessions -- the longest losing streaksince the eight days of declines following the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks,when the blue chips lost 1,038.12, or 10.8 percent. It lost a staggering 2,400points, or 22.1 percent. -- The market's volatility was so intense that there were just three daysduring the month that the Dow didn't rise or fall in triple digits. The Dow setnew records for one-day point gains, 936.42 and 889.35, and for one-day pointlosses, 777.68 and 733.08. The stock market began the month anguishing over the House ofRepresentative's rejection of the government's plan to bail out the nation'sfinancial system -- a program made necessary by the paralysis of the creditmarkets following the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. But the ultimatepassage of the plan gave the market no lasting joy -- it was overshadowed by themarket's intense fears of a prolonged and deep recession, and the volatility andheavy selling that marked the month continued. It was only after the government decided to invest money into the nation'sbig banks that the market began to calm -- there were signs that lending wasstarting to ease. There were still waves of selling, some of them due to hedgeand mutual funds unloading their shares at the end of their fiscal year, but bythis week, signs were emerging that Wall Street was righting itself. But the week's relative stability offered investors some calm. And theirreaction to economic data also showed a decrease in some of their anxiety. TheCommerce Department said personal spending fell by 0.3 percent last month, asexpected, the biggest decline since June 2004. Combined with flat readings inboth July and August, it led to the worst quarterly performance in 28 years. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of manufacturing activity,fell to a reading of 37.8 -- much worse than the 48.0 figure that analystsanticipated. But the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment data came in at57.6, slightly better than the 57.5 expected. Alongside the unsurprisingly downbeat readings, investors also consideredwhether government help for struggling homeowners might be able to helpstabilize the housing market and alleviate a worry for many homeowners, eventhose not behind on mortgage payments. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking by satellite to a Berkeley,Calif., conference said the housing finance system will require bettersafeguards to allow it to function during times of strain in the market. Heoutlined a number of possible ways to structure housing finance in the future,though he did not indicate his preferences. The Bush administration is mulling a proposal that would help around 3million homeowners avoid foreclosure by having the government guarantee billionsof dollars worth of distressed mortgages. It could include changes to loans thatwould lower interest rates for a five-year period. Treasury demand let up slightly as stocks rose. The three-month Treasurybill, considered one of the safest assets around, yielded 0.45 percent, higherthan 0.37 percent late Thursday. A higher yield translates to decreased demand.The 10-year Treasury note's yield was 3.97 percent, unchanged from lateThursday. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies. Gold prices declined. Crude oil fell $1.35 to $64.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 5.01 percent. Britain's FTSE 100rose 2.01 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 2.44 percent, and France's CAC-40rose 2.33 percent. Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
10:19 am - DJIA is up but selling volume remained low !
Watch out for the presidential election on Nov 4.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
11:46 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine !
Dear Traders,
On Wednesday, Sam Gibson, an executive with Man gave a briefing on Man Funds at the PJ Hilton. Many of you including myself and Martin are invested in Man and are worried as many hedge funds are bust or lost most of their assets.
Here are the highlights of his briefing:
1- Man AHL has performed positively this quarter making a small profit. Man AHL is the driver of Man Essential/ Eclipse Funds.
2 - Losses as reflected in your Fame account are because the AUD dropped in value versus the RM. Sam reported that the AUD may recover in the next few months
as world credit problems resolve themselves and banks start to lend again. He also mentioned that Australian Banks are solid and not caught up in the credit crises and this is AUD supportive. Demand for commodities which Australia produces is still strong from China despite the negative press.
3 The Australian government has announced that they will guarantee all bank deposts. This means your capital guarantee for the Man Funds is secure. Your guarantee is secured in AUD government bonds and no exposure to AIG/ Lehmen or any mortgage/subprime bonds.
4 The holding company of Man listed in London FTSE is an asset manager and not a bank which means they do not suffer credit problems that UK banks are suffering.
5 Man AHL deals in commodity markets and exploits trends both up and down. Because commodities are traded on an an official exchange such as the CPOT or CME with a clearing house and in cash there is virtually no risk of default.
6 Man is a fund of funds and not a one man show fund. THis means you are diversified among markets and managers. Most hedge funds that went bust recently are one man show funds.
7 Man fund withdrawals by fearful investors have been very limited in this market turmoil testifing to the confidence of institutional and professional investors in Man.
After listening to the presentation I have decided to personally commit more funds to Man. The newly launched capital guaranteed fund will close on 28 November.
There will be no newsletter this weekend as I am going to Vietnam on holiday. Any questions on your account or investments with me please call Martin 03 2084 9999 ext 3533. Will be back on Tuesday
The KLSE is holding at the monthly support having being tested 3 times. Risk is limited at this levels but continue to deal in only the highest quality issues.
Have a good week ahead
Bill
On Wednesday, Sam Gibson, an executive with Man gave a briefing on Man Funds at the PJ Hilton. Many of you including myself and Martin are invested in Man and are worried as many hedge funds are bust or lost most of their assets.
Here are the highlights of his briefing:
1- Man AHL has performed positively this quarter making a small profit. Man AHL is the driver of Man Essential/ Eclipse Funds.
2 - Losses as reflected in your Fame account are because the AUD dropped in value versus the RM. Sam reported that the AUD may recover in the next few months
as world credit problems resolve themselves and banks start to lend again. He also mentioned that Australian Banks are solid and not caught up in the credit crises and this is AUD supportive. Demand for commodities which Australia produces is still strong from China despite the negative press.
3 The Australian government has announced that they will guarantee all bank deposts. This means your capital guarantee for the Man Funds is secure. Your guarantee is secured in AUD government bonds and no exposure to AIG/ Lehmen or any mortgage/subprime bonds.
4 The holding company of Man listed in London FTSE is an asset manager and not a bank which means they do not suffer credit problems that UK banks are suffering.
5 Man AHL deals in commodity markets and exploits trends both up and down. Because commodities are traded on an an official exchange such as the CPOT or CME with a clearing house and in cash there is virtually no risk of default.
6 Man is a fund of funds and not a one man show fund. THis means you are diversified among markets and managers. Most hedge funds that went bust recently are one man show funds.
7 Man fund withdrawals by fearful investors have been very limited in this market turmoil testifing to the confidence of institutional and professional investors in Man.
After listening to the presentation I have decided to personally commit more funds to Man. The newly launched capital guaranteed fund will close on 28 November.
There will be no newsletter this weekend as I am going to Vietnam on holiday. Any questions on your account or investments with me please call Martin 03 2084 9999 ext 3533. Will be back on Tuesday
The KLSE is holding at the monthly support having being tested 3 times. Risk is limited at this levels but continue to deal in only the highest quality issues.
Have a good week ahead
Bill
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