Tuesday, March 24, 2009
4:04 pm - FKLI is breaking lower but holding up at 876-878 support level !
Took the short trade this morning at 891.0
Monday, March 23, 2009
9:16 am - Market Report by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
The consensus of most traders and investors continues to be overwealmingly bearish and pessimistic. We held a CPE course for a group of fund managers and remeisers at CIMB Saturday.
Only one out of 50 raised their hand when I asked how many were bullish.
In my opinion this is irrational pessimism the opposite of irrational optimism and is a sign of a near term bottom.
The irrational optimists were super bullish when the KLSE hit 1500. Now they are irrational bearish when the KLSE hit 800.
One of our graduates Tony Cheong who is a remeiser with Kenaga shared his trading record for February and showed that through disciplined application of price and volume trading it is possible to earn reasonable profits even in a bear market. His method is short term contra trading.
If you are looking for a remeiser who trades with a disciplined strategy and you do not have time to trade on line . It is worth paying a little extra for service that can save you from disaster. An on line platform will not remind you to manage risk.
I would recommend him. His email is : cth6328@hotmail.com .
The Man AUD Capital guaranteed fund closed on Friday and for those who invested or invested in previous Man AUD funds the outlook for the AUD has turned positive. The yield carry over the US Dollar is 3 % and Australia last week signed a free trade agreement with the ASIAN group. Total exports to this group are more than their exports to the US and Europe.
Australia has problems but the impression is that commentators who are dwelling on them have lost perspective that the problems of the US may be worse. The AUD looks relatively well placed.
Attached is a chart of the AUD showing a shakeout last week before a substantial rise. Insiders are heavily accumulating the AUD under cover of extreme bad news. Most CNBC talking heads are still bearish the AUD as they run cover for their insider friends that run the hedge funds.
You may still invest in the AUD Man Diversified Fund which invests in a basket of managed futures as this is an opened ended fund. This is a good hedge should stock markets underperform in 2009. Man is actively managed and profits in both upand down markets as opposed to stock unit trusts which only profit in upmarkets.
I am very wary of scenario trading- a fund which is long only is a scenario trade. It is based on the premise that stocks just like property only go up over the long term. Tell that to California home owners who have seen the value of their houses drop an average of 40 % or buy and holders of shares around the world have lost upwards of 50 % of their share investments.
In time buy and holders may recover their money but unfortunately we live in the now and have needs now that must be satisfied. Active management that allows trading trends in both sides of the market solves this problem. Unfortunately those with opinions and ego problems have a difficult time facing reality- and unfortunately they may pay the price. Bias in the news is always to buy share unit trusts as the unit trust companies support the newspapers with large ad revenue unlike Man who does not advertise
I suppose I am biased to the risk management trading approach but that is because my main focus for my clients is capital preservation during difficult times.
Have a good week
Bill
The consensus of most traders and investors continues to be overwealmingly bearish and pessimistic. We held a CPE course for a group of fund managers and remeisers at CIMB Saturday.
Only one out of 50 raised their hand when I asked how many were bullish.
In my opinion this is irrational pessimism the opposite of irrational optimism and is a sign of a near term bottom.
The irrational optimists were super bullish when the KLSE hit 1500. Now they are irrational bearish when the KLSE hit 800.
One of our graduates Tony Cheong who is a remeiser with Kenaga shared his trading record for February and showed that through disciplined application of price and volume trading it is possible to earn reasonable profits even in a bear market. His method is short term contra trading.
If you are looking for a remeiser who trades with a disciplined strategy and you do not have time to trade on line . It is worth paying a little extra for service that can save you from disaster. An on line platform will not remind you to manage risk.
I would recommend him. His email is : cth6328@hotmail.com .
The Man AUD Capital guaranteed fund closed on Friday and for those who invested or invested in previous Man AUD funds the outlook for the AUD has turned positive. The yield carry over the US Dollar is 3 % and Australia last week signed a free trade agreement with the ASIAN group. Total exports to this group are more than their exports to the US and Europe.
Australia has problems but the impression is that commentators who are dwelling on them have lost perspective that the problems of the US may be worse. The AUD looks relatively well placed.
Attached is a chart of the AUD showing a shakeout last week before a substantial rise. Insiders are heavily accumulating the AUD under cover of extreme bad news. Most CNBC talking heads are still bearish the AUD as they run cover for their insider friends that run the hedge funds.
You may still invest in the AUD Man Diversified Fund which invests in a basket of managed futures as this is an opened ended fund. This is a good hedge should stock markets underperform in 2009. Man is actively managed and profits in both upand down markets as opposed to stock unit trusts which only profit in upmarkets.
I am very wary of scenario trading- a fund which is long only is a scenario trade. It is based on the premise that stocks just like property only go up over the long term. Tell that to California home owners who have seen the value of their houses drop an average of 40 % or buy and holders of shares around the world have lost upwards of 50 % of their share investments.
In time buy and holders may recover their money but unfortunately we live in the now and have needs now that must be satisfied. Active management that allows trading trends in both sides of the market solves this problem. Unfortunately those with opinions and ego problems have a difficult time facing reality- and unfortunately they may pay the price. Bias in the news is always to buy share unit trusts as the unit trust companies support the newspapers with large ad revenue unlike Man who does not advertise
I suppose I am biased to the risk management trading approach but that is because my main focus for my clients is capital preservation during difficult times.
Have a good week
Bill
Friday, March 20, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
11 am - Some update on Palm oil
POC 2009 -
summary of Mielke, Mistry, Fry, Richard anschartist Mielke-
Oil World:PO output toslow on weaker prices.
For JAN-JUNE :CPO cif Rotterdam may rise to $ 640/t (RM 2360) as global output slows.( nowapr/june rotterdam cif $600) RBD POLEIN will be arnd $670/T (RM 2470) cifRotetrdameconomy dowturnmay limit the PO's price rallyexpects lowoutput of oils & fats in 2009- slow investment in agri and plantings small rise incpo output this year in Indon and Msia due to tree stress after a good harvest Mistry :
CPO will go toRM 2100/ $ 570 in next few weeks on tight stocksweaker in2H2009 on weaker sbo, higher output Aug onwards and slow demand. Stock to swell again Polein may go higher temporarily to crude degummed SBO After apr/may,palm will become uncompetitive against soutgh american sbo. will lose mkt shareto sbo.
On India: demand will increase in 2009 due to o duties for cpo and sfo consumption will expand by half miliion tons to 13.5 miliion tns thisyear No duty hike till end June - new govt/election PO demand will rise 11.2% to 5.66 million tons in current oil year SBO consumption/demand will fall 4.8% to 2 million tons dueto higher duty.
JamesFry:
CPO prices RM1400-1500/t by July on alow demand, weaker crude oil and stock-output trend isnot tight RichartKastilani - Tropical Oil Grains:RM 1500 - rm2000 ($420-540) for next 3-4 mths. PrudentialTechnical:range 1700 to2300. 2H 2009 maydrop to $400 (arnd RM 1500) if good harvest of RSO,and SFO and if crude oilarnd $35-$45
summary of Mielke, Mistry, Fry, Richard anschartist Mielke-
Oil World:PO output toslow on weaker prices.
For JAN-JUNE :CPO cif Rotterdam may rise to $ 640/t (RM 2360) as global output slows.( nowapr/june rotterdam cif $600) RBD POLEIN will be arnd $670/T (RM 2470) cifRotetrdameconomy dowturnmay limit the PO's price rallyexpects lowoutput of oils & fats in 2009- slow investment in agri and plantings small rise incpo output this year in Indon and Msia due to tree stress after a good harvest Mistry :
CPO will go toRM 2100/ $ 570 in next few weeks on tight stocksweaker in2H2009 on weaker sbo, higher output Aug onwards and slow demand. Stock to swell again Polein may go higher temporarily to crude degummed SBO After apr/may,palm will become uncompetitive against soutgh american sbo. will lose mkt shareto sbo.
On India: demand will increase in 2009 due to o duties for cpo and sfo consumption will expand by half miliion tons to 13.5 miliion tns thisyear No duty hike till end June - new govt/election PO demand will rise 11.2% to 5.66 million tons in current oil year SBO consumption/demand will fall 4.8% to 2 million tons dueto higher duty.
JamesFry:
CPO prices RM1400-1500/t by July on alow demand, weaker crude oil and stock-output trend isnot tight RichartKastilani - Tropical Oil Grains:RM 1500 - rm2000 ($420-540) for next 3-4 mths. PrudentialTechnical:range 1700 to2300. 2H 2009 maydrop to $400 (arnd RM 1500) if good harvest of RSO,and SFO and if crude oilarnd $35-$45
10:57 am - Martin's Workshop Tomorrow Night
Dear All,
You are invited to a free of charge 3 hours workshop on
"How to profit to this turbulent market by Trading Futures"
conducted by Mr Bill Wermine and Mr Martin Wong.
Date : 18 Mar 2009 Wednesday
Time : 7pm ~ 10 pm
Venue : CIMB Auditorium, Bangunan CIMB, Jln Semantan, Damansara Heights.
(Opposite Peninsular Hotel)
Regards,
For map goto to www.imtradermy.com
Chong (016-6620881)
You are invited to a free of charge 3 hours workshop on
"How to profit to this turbulent market by Trading Futures"
conducted by Mr Bill Wermine and Mr Martin Wong.
Date : 18 Mar 2009 Wednesday
Time : 7pm ~ 10 pm
Venue : CIMB Auditorium, Bangunan CIMB, Jln Semantan, Damansara Heights.
(Opposite Peninsular Hotel)
Regards,
For map goto to www.imtradermy.com
Chong (016-6620881)
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