Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
5:43 pm - Expect some selling tomorrow for FKLI
FKLI did selldown at the end. DJIA futures down -3 pts.
(sorry no charts as I have problem posting them).
(sorry no charts as I have problem posting them).
10:14 am - Market Report by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
We held our traders club meeting at CIMB auditorium today. Nigel Foo gave his outlook and it was bearish for everything. He showed an Elliot Wave chart with the Dow/ KLSE in an extended wave 2, known as the sucker wave.
He said it will suck in the majority of players who are 88 % bullish acording to the sentiment indicator he follows. This was the same sentiment level at the 2007 top. Once the rally wanes the Dow is on course to 5000 and the KLSE to 600.
How do we protect ourselves in this scenario? Watch for no demand price bars, upthrusts and hidden potential selling confimed by volume/price spreads. In this way we protect our accumulated profits on our quality shares by exiting at the time professionals/ smart money are moving to the exits.
We played 4 video clips from the documentary Broke in America by hedge fund manager Michael Covel as he explained how the government controlled media in the US cheerleads for the vested interests such as Goldman Sachs, Obama and his band of socialists. We showed a clip of CNBC front man Jim Cramer whose job is to lead the sheep investors to slaughter by recommending hot tips to make fast money as his insider friends offload. He is nothing more than a pimp for the prostitutes he serves.
Insider sales as reported to the exchanges is at the highest level since the market top in 2007. Insiders include CEOs, institutions, hedge funds, professional investors that trade size. They are the smart money and you have to ask why are they selling when all the news is bullish ?
As a trader I try not to have opinions or make forecasts but my mind is open to views from those I respect. I then use my charts facts and logic to confirm what they say. This will lead to opportunity be it on the long side or the short side.
Based on the US Government's easy money policy- Bernenke has pumped 1.75 trillion dollars into the big US banks while slashing interest rates to 0.25 % to counter the worst banking crises since the Great Depression. The Fed's ultra easy money policy may have sown the seeds for an outburst of inflation when economic activity picks up.
The CRB Index supports this view. The CRB is a basket of all the major world commodities- grains, precious and base metals, as well as soft commodities.
As investors and the public lose confidence in currencies they accumulate commodities- witness the Chinese who are accumulating virtually all commodities as they reduce their holdings of US Bonds.
CRB Monthly chart shows a rounding bottom over the last 9 months as professionals accumulate commodities anticipating a return of inflation. There is more room to go up than to go down. The CRB supports the inflation scenario.
We held our traders club meeting at CIMB auditorium today. Nigel Foo gave his outlook and it was bearish for everything. He showed an Elliot Wave chart with the Dow/ KLSE in an extended wave 2, known as the sucker wave.
He said it will suck in the majority of players who are 88 % bullish acording to the sentiment indicator he follows. This was the same sentiment level at the 2007 top. Once the rally wanes the Dow is on course to 5000 and the KLSE to 600.
How do we protect ourselves in this scenario? Watch for no demand price bars, upthrusts and hidden potential selling confimed by volume/price spreads. In this way we protect our accumulated profits on our quality shares by exiting at the time professionals/ smart money are moving to the exits.
We played 4 video clips from the documentary Broke in America by hedge fund manager Michael Covel as he explained how the government controlled media in the US cheerleads for the vested interests such as Goldman Sachs, Obama and his band of socialists. We showed a clip of CNBC front man Jim Cramer whose job is to lead the sheep investors to slaughter by recommending hot tips to make fast money as his insider friends offload. He is nothing more than a pimp for the prostitutes he serves.
Insider sales as reported to the exchanges is at the highest level since the market top in 2007. Insiders include CEOs, institutions, hedge funds, professional investors that trade size. They are the smart money and you have to ask why are they selling when all the news is bullish ?
As a trader I try not to have opinions or make forecasts but my mind is open to views from those I respect. I then use my charts facts and logic to confirm what they say. This will lead to opportunity be it on the long side or the short side.
Based on the US Government's easy money policy- Bernenke has pumped 1.75 trillion dollars into the big US banks while slashing interest rates to 0.25 % to counter the worst banking crises since the Great Depression. The Fed's ultra easy money policy may have sown the seeds for an outburst of inflation when economic activity picks up.
The CRB Index supports this view. The CRB is a basket of all the major world commodities- grains, precious and base metals, as well as soft commodities.
As investors and the public lose confidence in currencies they accumulate commodities- witness the Chinese who are accumulating virtually all commodities as they reduce their holdings of US Bonds.
CRB Monthly chart shows a rounding bottom over the last 9 months as professionals accumulate commodities anticipating a return of inflation. There is more room to go up than to go down. The CRB supports the inflation scenario.
We also plan to post Nigels presentation on Martin's blog as we move toward servicing you via the internet. Many of you live in Penang, Kuching, Johor, Singapore and even Indonesia and it is not practical for you to participate in our gatherings. We plan to extend our research coverage as hiring hotels for presentations, travelling outside KL and advertising in the newsmedia has become prohibitively expensive.
Let us have your feedback on this. Martin and are planning to attend a workshop on creating blogs/ setting up an e coaching service next month by a prominent Indian blogger.
Here's a quote from a floor trader of S & P futures- Larry Levin
"And oh, by the way, don't expect any stock market weakness while so many billions are being shoveled out the Fed and into the pockets of the primary dealers. They'll have to do something with all that freshly minted cash....."I think it's clear folks; there is no "free market" and what is left of the stock and bond markets have become a pyramid scheme that makes Bernie Madoff look like a piker. Trade well and follow the trend.
Have a profitable week ahead
Bill
Let us have your feedback on this. Martin and are planning to attend a workshop on creating blogs/ setting up an e coaching service next month by a prominent Indian blogger.
Here's a quote from a floor trader of S & P futures- Larry Levin
"And oh, by the way, don't expect any stock market weakness while so many billions are being shoveled out the Fed and into the pockets of the primary dealers. They'll have to do something with all that freshly minted cash....."I think it's clear folks; there is no "free market" and what is left of the stock and bond markets have become a pyramid scheme that makes Bernie Madoff look like a piker. Trade well and follow the trend.
Have a profitable week ahead
Bill
Saturday, August 08, 2009
Friday, August 07, 2009
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
9:50 am - Traders club meeting Sat 8 Aug 2009
Dear Traders,
Our Traders Club will be on:
Saturday 8 August
Time : 10 am - 12 noon.
Venue : CIMB Auditorium, Damansara:
Here is the map http://martinoffice.blogspot.com/
Nigel Foo, head of research for CIMB has agreed to give his market outlook this Sat. If you have anything to share with our group please let me or Martin know.
We will also show some clips from Broke in America, an underground documentary by hedge fund manager Michael Covel and brief interviews with some of the most prominent traders in the world including market wizard Larry Hite.
This movie documents the financial disaster and how the media is the tool of the smart money to strip the sheep of their hard earned money by market manipulation, fraud and deceit. All you price and volume traders will understand how this is done.
Please Let us know if you wish to attend as seats are limited.
Have a profitable week
Bill
Our Traders Club will be on:
Saturday 8 August
Time : 10 am - 12 noon.
Venue : CIMB Auditorium, Damansara:
Here is the map http://martinoffice.blogspot.com/
Nigel Foo, head of research for CIMB has agreed to give his market outlook this Sat. If you have anything to share with our group please let me or Martin know.
We will also show some clips from Broke in America, an underground documentary by hedge fund manager Michael Covel and brief interviews with some of the most prominent traders in the world including market wizard Larry Hite.
This movie documents the financial disaster and how the media is the tool of the smart money to strip the sheep of their hard earned money by market manipulation, fraud and deceit. All you price and volume traders will understand how this is done.
Please Let us know if you wish to attend as seats are limited.
Have a profitable week
Bill
Monday, August 03, 2009
10:27 am - Market Report by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
We may be soon reaching an inflection point. Shanghai is trading at 35 times earnings while Shenzhen is at 45 times while both indexes are up over 90 % this year. Advise to take profits on your China Fund positions and move into gold.
These indexes are in an expanding bubble as sheep investors chase these indexes ever higher like sharks in a feeding frenzy. China markets are prone to sudden meltdowns- last week there was an 8 % drop at one point before recovering later in the week.
Should there be a savage 20 to 30 % correction in China this will pull down world stock markets including the Dow and to a minor extent the high flyers in the KLSE.
How do we preserve our capital in these dangerous times ?
Some talking heads with expensive suits on Bloomberg and CNBC say buy the US Dollar . These fellows are front running for their insider clients who are on the sell side. Remember any information that is free is suspect.
Unfortunately the Dollar Index is in liquidation mode having broken a major support @ 77 on course to a mutiyear low of 66. A few weeks ago I recommended you exit US Dollar currency positions- the advice still holds and buy gold and AUD . You may buy the GDX ETF fund or Am Precious Metals Fund.
George Bernard Shaw advised in 1928 " You have to choose between trusting the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of members of the government. I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold, "he said.
This advice still stands.
Gold is propped up by ultra low interest rates around the world and massive amounts of money injections by central banks into the global money system.
Hedge funds such as Man are borrowing USD at interest rates close to zero and buying, the AUD at 3 % as well as commodities and stocks. This puts more pressure on the USD.
Do not be afraid of the KLSE corrections and shakeouts that are a natural act. They are the friend of the smart money as they allow ownership to transfer from sheep investors to market tigers. In my managed accounts am maintaining 20 %cash to exploit any shakeout. Will continue to hold our super blue chip dividend payers and Man AHL which is our port in the storm.
For those with Ameritade accounts you may buy the DBA - a grain comodities ETF fund. Soybeans have fallen over 30 % from the highs- and soybean stocks are historically low. With a weakening US dollar, there is limited downside but room on the upside.
This is a simple play- nothing complicated about buying corn, wheat, soybeans, palm oil, rice- no worry about a fraudulent balance sheet
and mulitmillion bonuses to crooked bankers. In fact futures contracts for grains on the CBOT are highly regulated, simple to understand and transparent unlike most other investments available to the investing public. This is also a hedge against currency volatility and stock market collapse.
Have a profitable week,
Bill
We may be soon reaching an inflection point. Shanghai is trading at 35 times earnings while Shenzhen is at 45 times while both indexes are up over 90 % this year. Advise to take profits on your China Fund positions and move into gold.
These indexes are in an expanding bubble as sheep investors chase these indexes ever higher like sharks in a feeding frenzy. China markets are prone to sudden meltdowns- last week there was an 8 % drop at one point before recovering later in the week.
Should there be a savage 20 to 30 % correction in China this will pull down world stock markets including the Dow and to a minor extent the high flyers in the KLSE.
How do we preserve our capital in these dangerous times ?
Some talking heads with expensive suits on Bloomberg and CNBC say buy the US Dollar . These fellows are front running for their insider clients who are on the sell side. Remember any information that is free is suspect.
Unfortunately the Dollar Index is in liquidation mode having broken a major support @ 77 on course to a mutiyear low of 66. A few weeks ago I recommended you exit US Dollar currency positions- the advice still holds and buy gold and AUD . You may buy the GDX ETF fund or Am Precious Metals Fund.
George Bernard Shaw advised in 1928 " You have to choose between trusting the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of members of the government. I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold, "he said.
This advice still stands.
Gold is propped up by ultra low interest rates around the world and massive amounts of money injections by central banks into the global money system.
Hedge funds such as Man are borrowing USD at interest rates close to zero and buying, the AUD at 3 % as well as commodities and stocks. This puts more pressure on the USD.
Do not be afraid of the KLSE corrections and shakeouts that are a natural act. They are the friend of the smart money as they allow ownership to transfer from sheep investors to market tigers. In my managed accounts am maintaining 20 %cash to exploit any shakeout. Will continue to hold our super blue chip dividend payers and Man AHL which is our port in the storm.
For those with Ameritade accounts you may buy the DBA - a grain comodities ETF fund. Soybeans have fallen over 30 % from the highs- and soybean stocks are historically low. With a weakening US dollar, there is limited downside but room on the upside.
This is a simple play- nothing complicated about buying corn, wheat, soybeans, palm oil, rice- no worry about a fraudulent balance sheet
and mulitmillion bonuses to crooked bankers. In fact futures contracts for grains on the CBOT are highly regulated, simple to understand and transparent unlike most other investments available to the investing public. This is also a hedge against currency volatility and stock market collapse.
Have a profitable week,
Bill
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
